O'Higgins
vs
Cobresal
Primera División prediction
Our model says: O'Higgins 2–1 Cobresal
The model makes it 46% O'Higgins, 26% draw, 28% Cobresal — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: O'Higgins 1.71, Cobresal 1.23.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- O'Higgins are 13th on 27 points from 24 games; Cobresal are 14th on 25 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- O'Higgins have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Huachipato.
- Cobresal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Universidad de Concepcion.
- Last 6 meetings: O'Higgins 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Cobresal 2–3 O'Higgins.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: O'Higgins vs Cobresal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts O'Higgins at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into O'Higgins vs Cobresal
O'Higgins
- L0-2away to Huachipato10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Audax Italiano13 September 2026
- W2-1Union La Calera6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Universidad Catolica1 September 2026
- L0-1Palestino23 August 2026
Cobresal
- D1-1Universidad de Concepcion10 October 2026
- W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Deportes Limache7 September 2026
- W2-0Palestino28 August 2026
- D3-3away to Deportes La Serena23 August 2026
What these results say
- O'Higgins conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- O'Higgins failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cobresal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cobresal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
O'Higgins
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
Cobresal
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 65% today
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: O'Higgins vs Cobresal
- 19 April 2026Cobresal 2–3 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 16 August 2025O'Higgins 1–0 CobresalPrimera División
- 16 March 2025Cobresal 0–0 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 2 November 2024Cobresal 3–1 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 26 May 2024O'Higgins 2–2 CobresalPrimera División
- 25 November 2023O'Higgins 0–0 CobresalPrimera División
Leading scorers: O'Higgins and Cobresal
O'Higgins
GoalsAssists
- A. Castillo80
Cobresal
GoalsAssists
- S. Pino71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
O'Higgins carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.32 for Cobresal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for O'Higgins and 1.23 for Cobresal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
O'Higgins rate 0.56 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cobresal rate 0.63 and 1.83.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives O'Higgins the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for O'Higgins against 1.23 for Cobresal. O'Higgins's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.83 for Cobresal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
O'Higgins at home · Cobresal away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: O'Higgins 24, Cobresal 24.
O'Higgins score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Cobresal have let in 3 there.
Cobresal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); O'Higgins have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
O'Higgins
- vs Nublense1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 47%
- at Universidad de Concepcion8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Universidad de Chile22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- at Everton de Vina29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 21%
- vs Coquimbo Unido6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 35%
Cobresal
- vs Everton de Vina1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- at Universidad de Chile8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 13%
- vs Audax Italiano22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 41%
- at Nublense29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
- vs Colo Colo6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.