Deportes Limache
vs
Audax Italiano
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Deportes Limache 2–1 Audax Italiano
The model makes it 49% Deportes Limache, 26% draw, 25% Audax Italiano — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportes Limache 1.80, Audax Italiano 1.13.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Deportes Limache are 6th on 34 points from 24 games; Audax Italiano are 12th on 28 points from 23 games — Primera División.
- Deportes Limache have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Palestino.
- Audax Italiano have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to O'Higgins.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Audax Italiano 2–2 Deportes Limache.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportes Limache vs Audax Italiano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Limache at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportes Limache vs Audax Italiano
Deportes Limache
- D2-2Palestino11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026
- W3-0Cobresal7 September 2026
- W2-0Nublense3 September 2026
- L0-3Everton de Vina29 August 2026
Audax Italiano
- W1-0O'Higgins13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Concepción5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Colo Colo30 August 2026
- D0-0Union La Calera22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Everton de Vina16 August 2026
What these results say
- Audax Italiano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Audax Italiano had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 34 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportes Limache vs Audax Italiano
- 25 April 2026Audax Italiano 2–2 Deportes LimachePrimera División
- 11 August 2025Deportes Limache 4–0 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 8 March 2025Audax Italiano 3–1 Deportes LimachePrimera División
Leading scorers: Deportes Limache and Audax Italiano
Deportes Limache
GoalsAssists
- D. Castro137
- G. Sosa80
Audax Italiano
GoalsAssists
- G. Chiaverano62
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportes Limache carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.37 for Audax Italiano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Deportes Limache and 1.13 for Audax Italiano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportes Limache rate 0.73 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Audax Italiano rate 0.56 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Limache the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Deportes Limache against 1.13 for Audax Italiano. Deportes Limache's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.47 for Audax Italiano.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportes Limache at home · Audax Italiano away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Deportes Limache 24, Audax Italiano 23.
Deportes Limache score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Audax Italiano have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Deportes Limache
- at Universidad Catolica8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Deportes La Serena22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 53%
- at Coquimbo Unido29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Concepción6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
Audax Italiano
- vs Coquimbo Unido8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Cobresal22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
- vs Palestino29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.