Huachipato
vs
Deportes La Serena
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Huachipato 2–1 Deportes La Serena
The model makes it 46% Huachipato, 25% draw, 29% Deportes La Serena — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Huachipato 1.90, Deportes La Serena 1.41.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Huachipato are 10th on 31 points from 23 games; Deportes La Serena are 11th on 30 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Huachipato are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to O'Higgins.
- Deportes La Serena have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Everton de Vina.
- Last 6 meetings: Huachipato 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Deportes La Serena 0–0 Huachipato.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Huachipato vs Deportes La Serena
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Huachipato at 46% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Huachipato vs Deportes La Serena
Huachipato
- W2-0O'Higgins10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Universidad de Concepcion2 October 2026
- D0-0Colo Colo6 September 2026
- L1-3Deportes Limache22 August 2026
- L1-5away to Palestino18 August 2026
Deportes La Serena
- L2-3away to Everton de Vina11 October 2026
- L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026
- W2-1Nublense6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Union La Calera31 August 2026
- D3-3Cobresal23 August 2026
What these results say
- Huachipato scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportes La Serena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportes La Serena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportes La Serena had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Huachipato | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | Deportes La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Huachipato vs Deportes La Serena
- 26 April 2026Deportes La Serena 0–0 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 24 August 2025Deportes La Serena 0–2 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 30 March 2025Huachipato 3–1 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 14 August 2022Deportes La Serena 0–1 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 20 March 2022Huachipato 2–3 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 29 October 2021Deportes La Serena 2–2 HuachipatoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Huachipato and Deportes La Serena
Huachipato
GoalsAssists
- L. Altamirano91
Deportes La Serena
GoalsAssists
- J. Vargas77
- F. Chamorro73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Huachipato carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.35 for Deportes La Serena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Huachipato and 1.41 for Deportes La Serena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Huachipato rate 0.63 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes La Serena rate 0.66 and 1.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Huachipato the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Huachipato against 1.41 for Deportes La Serena. Huachipato's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.8 for Deportes La Serena.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Huachipato at home · Deportes La Serena away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Huachipato 23, Deportes La Serena 24.
Huachipato score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Deportes La Serena have let in 12 there.
Deportes La Serena score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Huachipato have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Huachipato
- at Union La Calera8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Concepción22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Universidad Catolica29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
Deportes La Serena
- vs Palestino8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- at Deportes Limache22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- at Colo Colo29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Audax Italiano6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.