Concepción
vs
Palestino
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Concepción 1–0 Palestino
The model makes it 42% Concepción, 30% draw, 28% Palestino — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Concepción 1.34, Palestino 1.01.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Concepción are 8th on 32 points from 24 games; Palestino are 5th on 37 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Concepción are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Union La Calera.
- Palestino have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Deportes Limache.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Palestino 0–1 Concepción.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Concepción vs Palestino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Concepción at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Concepción vs Palestino
Concepción
- D1-1Union La Calera11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026
- L0-1Audax Italiano5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Nublense30 August 2026
- D1-1Coquimbo Unido23 August 2026
Palestino
- D2-2away to Deportes Limache11 October 2026
- L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Concepcion6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cobresal28 August 2026
- W1-0away to O'Higgins23 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Concepción had two goals or fewer.
- Concepción failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Concepción scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palestino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palestino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Concepción | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 32 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Concepción vs Palestino
- 24 April 2026Palestino 0–1 ConcepciónPrimera División
- 30 April 2025Palestino 4–4 ConcepciónCopa Chile
- 23 March 2025Concepción 3–2 PalestinoCopa Chile
- 3 July 2021Concepción 0–4 PalestinoCopa Chile
- 30 June 2021Palestino 4–0 ConcepciónCopa Chile
Leading scorers: Concepción and Palestino
Concepción
GoalsAssists
- J. Larrivey71
Palestino
GoalsAssists
- N. Da Silva82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Concepción carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.48 for Palestino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Concepción and 1.01 for Palestino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Concepción rate 0.54 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palestino rate 0.70 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Palestino, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Concepción the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Concepción against 1.01 for Palestino. Concepción's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.48 for Palestino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Concepción at home · Palestino away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Concepción 24, Palestino 24.
Palestino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Concepción have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Concepción
- at Everton de Vina8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- at Huachipato22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Universidad de Chile29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 30%
- at Deportes Limache6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 29%
Palestino
- at Deportes La Serena8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Union La Calera22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at Audax Italiano29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Everton de Vina6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.