Deportes La Serena
vs
Concepción
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Deportes La Serena 1–0 Concepción
The model makes it 37% Deportes La Serena, 29% draw, 34% Concepción — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportes La Serena 1.27, Concepción 1.21.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Deportes La Serena and Concepción are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportes La Serena are 11th on 30 points from 24 games; Concepción are 8th on 32 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Deportes La Serena have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Everton de Vina.
- Concepción are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Union La Calera.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportes La Serena vs Concepción
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes La Serena at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportes La Serena vs Concepción
Deportes La Serena
- L2-3away to Everton de Vina11 October 2026
- L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026
- W2-1Nublense6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Union La Calera31 August 2026
- D3-3Cobresal23 August 2026
Concepción
- D1-1Union La Calera11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026
- L0-1Audax Italiano5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Nublense30 August 2026
- D1-1Coquimbo Unido23 August 2026
What these results say
- Deportes La Serena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportes La Serena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportes La Serena had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Concepción had two goals or fewer.
- Concepción failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Concepción scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportes La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 30 |
| 8 | Concepción | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportes La Serena
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportes La Serena vs Concepción
- 19 April 2026Concepción 3–3 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Deportes La Serena and Concepción
Deportes La Serena
GoalsAssists
- J. Vargas77
- F. Chamorro73
Concepción
GoalsAssists
- J. Larrivey71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Deportes La Serena carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.5 for Concepción. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Deportes La Serena and 1.21 for Concepción. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportes La Serena rate 0.66 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Concepción rate 0.54 and 1.15.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Concepción, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes La Serena the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Deportes La Serena against 1.21 for Concepción. Deportes La Serena's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.15 for Concepción.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportes La Serena at home · Concepción away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Deportes La Serena 24, Concepción 24.
Deportes La Serena score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Concepción have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Deportes La Serena
- at Huachipato1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 29%
- vs Palestino8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
- at Deportes Limache22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- at Colo Colo29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Audax Italiano6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 43%
Concepción
- vs Palestino1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
- at Everton de Vina8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- at Huachipato22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Universidad de Chile29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 30%
- at Deportes Limache6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.