Cherno More Varna
vs
Botev Vratsa
First League prediction
Our model says: Cherno More Varna 1–0 Botev Vratsa
The model makes it 39% Cherno More Varna, 30% draw, 31% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cherno More Varna 1.27, Botev Vratsa 1.10.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Cherno More Varna's rating is built from 47 Bulgarian First League matches and Botev Vratsa's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 665 matches.
Key facts
- Cherno More Varna are bottom on 6 points from 11 games; Botev Vratsa are 9th on 9 points from 11 games — First League.
- Cherno More Varna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Levski Sofia.
- Botev Vratsa are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Spartak Varna.
- Last 5 meetings: Cherno More Varna 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2026, ended Botev Vratsa 1–1 Cherno More Varna.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cherno More Varna at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
Cherno More Varna
First League
- L0-2Levski Sofia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
- L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
Botev Vratsa
First League
- L0-1Spartak Varna10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026
- D0-0Levski Sofia13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Arda Kardzhali31 August 2026
What these results say
- Cherno More Varna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Botev Vratsa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Vratsa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
- 19 July 2026Botev Vratsa 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 20 February 2026Cherno More Varna 0–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 29 August 2025Botev Vratsa 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 7 December 2024Botev Vratsa 2–3 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 12 August 2024Cherno More Varna 2–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cherno More Varna carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.2 for Botev Vratsa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.10 for Botev Vratsa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cherno More Varna rate 0.52 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Vratsa rate 0.48 and 1.77.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Botev Vratsa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cherno More Varna the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Cherno More Varna against 1.10 for Botev Vratsa. Cherno More Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.77 for Botev Vratsa.
How the model reaches 39% for Cherno More Varna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cherno More Varna to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Cherno More Varna's ratings take away 28 points and Botev Vratsa's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Cherno More Varna's ratings12%−28
- Botev Vratsa's ratings39%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cherno More Varna at home · Botev Vratsa away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Cherno More VarnaBotev Vratsa
Cherno More Varna are 14th after 11 First League matches (between 7th and 14th so far); Botev Vratsa are 9th after 11 (between 6th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Cherno More Varna 11, Botev Vratsa 11.
Cherno More Varna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Botev Vratsa have let in 5 there.
Botev Vratsa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cherno More Varna have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cherno More Varna
- at Spartak Varna21 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- vs Botev Plovdiv28 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- at Ludogorets5 Dec · First Leaguewin 11%
Botev Vratsa
- vs CSKA 194821 Nov · First Leaguewin 23%
- vs Ludogorets28 Nov · First Leaguewin 17%
- at Slavia Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.