Dunav Ruse
vs
Levski Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Dunav Ruse 0–2 Levski Sofia
The model makes it 14% Dunav Ruse, 21% draw, 65% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 7.14, 4.76 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Dunav Ruse 0.80, Levski Sofia 2.28.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Levski Sofia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Dunav Ruse's rating is built from 11 Bulgarian First League matches and Levski Sofia's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 665 matches.
Key facts
- Dunav Ruse are 10th on 8 points from 11 games; Levski Sofia are top on 28 points from 10 games — First League.
- Dunav Ruse have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Septemvri Sofia.
- Levski Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Cherno More Varna.
- Last 6 meetings: Levski Sofia 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended Levski Sofia 2–1 Dunav Ruse.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 65% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia
Dunav Ruse
First League
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia11 October 2026
- D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194812 September 2026
- L0-1Slavia Sofia7 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia31 August 2026
Levski Sofia
First League
- W2-0away to Cherno More Varna11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
What these results say
- Dunav Ruse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 8 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia
- 17 July 2026Levski Sofia 2–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 14 December 2024Levski Sofia 1–0 Dunav RuseCup
- 22 November 2023Dunav Ruse 1–3 Levski SofiaCup
- 31 October 2019Levski Sofia 2–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 15 July 2019Dunav Ruse 1–4 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 1 December 2018Levski Sofia 3–0 Dunav RuseFirst League
A clear gap in the ratings
Dunav Ruse carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.82 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.80 goals for Dunav Ruse and 2.28 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunav Ruse rate 0.61 in attack and 2.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.89 and 0.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunav Ruse a 0% chance of the title and Levski Sofia 67.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Dunav Ruse against 2.28 for Levski Sofia. Dunav Ruse's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.95 for Levski Sofia.
How the model reaches 65% for Levski Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Levski Sofia to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Dunav Ruse's ratings add 37 points and Levski Sofia's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage31%−4
- Dunav Ruse's ratings68%+37
- Levski Sofia's ratings65%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dunav Ruse at home · Levski Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Dunav Ruse 11, Levski Sofia 10.
Dunav Ruse score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Levski Sofia have let in 2 there.
Levski Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Dunav Ruse have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dunav Ruse
- at Ludogorets21 Nov · First Leaguewin 11%
- vs CSKA Sofia28 Nov · First Leaguewin 20%
- at Arda Kardzhali5 Dec · First Leaguewin 27%
Levski Sofia
- vs Lokomotiv Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 72%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.