CSKA Sofia
vs
Slavia Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: CSKA Sofia 1–0 Slavia Sofia
The model makes it 56% CSKA Sofia, 27% draw, 17% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 1.79, 3.70 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.69, Slavia Sofia 0.70.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: CSKA Sofia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. CSKA Sofia's rating is built from 47 Bulgarian First League matches and Slavia Sofia's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 665 matches.
Key facts
- CSKA Sofia are 2nd on 27 points from 11 games; Slavia Sofia are 8th on 11 points from 11 games — First League.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to CSKA 1948.
- Slavia Sofia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Botev Plovdiv.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 July 2026, ended Slavia Sofia 0–0 CSKA Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 56% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
CSKA Sofia
First League
- W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
Slavia Sofia
First League
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv10 October 2026
- L1-2CSKA 194818 September 2026
- D0-0Spartak Varna13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia2 September 2026
What these results say
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
- 20 July 2026Slavia Sofia 0–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 21 February 2026CSKA Sofia 1–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 30 August 2025Slavia Sofia 2–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 8 February 2025Slavia Sofia 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 17 August 2024CSKA Sofia 0–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 5 December 2023Slavia Sofia 0–1 CSKA SofiaCup
The two sides
CSKA Sofia carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.3 for Slavia Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for CSKA Sofia and 0.70 for Slavia Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA Sofia rate 0.83 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Sofia rate 0.47 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA Sofia a 10.4% chance of the title and Slavia Sofia 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 0.70 for Slavia Sofia. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.47 for Slavia Sofia.
How the model reaches 56% for CSKA Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CSKA Sofia to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, CSKA Sofia's ratings take away 10 points and Slavia Sofia's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- CSKA Sofia's ratings30%−10
- Slavia Sofia's ratings56%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CSKA Sofia at home · Slavia Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CSKA SofiaSlavia Sofia
CSKA Sofia are 2nd after 11 First League matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Slavia Sofia are 8th after 11 (between 6th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: CSKA Sofia 11, Slavia Sofia 11.
CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Slavia Sofia have let in 2 there.
Slavia Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); CSKA Sofia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
CSKA Sofia
- at Botev Plovdiv21 Nov · First Leaguewin 48%
- vs Trabzonspor26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
Slavia Sofia
- vs Arda Kardzhali21 Nov · First Leaguewin 37%
- at Lokomotiv Sofia28 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- vs Botev Vratsa5 Dec · First Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.