Atlas
vs
CF Pachuca
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atlas 2–1 CF Pachuca
The model makes it 39% Atlas, 27% draw, 34% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlas 1.49, CF Pachuca 1.33.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Atlas's rating is built from 49 Liga MX matches and CF Pachuca's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 794 matches.
Key facts
- Atlas are 6th on 21 points from 13 games; CF Pachuca are 16th on 13 points from 13 games — Liga MX.
- Atlas have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to Club America.
- CF Pachuca have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Cruz Azul.
- Last 6 meetings: CF Pachuca 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended CF Pachuca 3–1 Atlas.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atlas vs CF Pachuca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlas at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atlas vs CF Pachuca
Atlas
Liga MX
- L2-5Club America22 October 2026
- W2-0away to Necaxa17 October 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Club Tijuana26 September 2026
- D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
CF Pachuca
Liga MX
- L1-2Cruz Azul22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monterrey19 October 2026
- D3-3Necaxa11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Atlas.
- CF Pachuca did not win any of these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 21 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs CF Pachuca
- 14 February 2026CF Pachuca 3–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 10 August 2025Atlas 0–3 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 2 February 2025CF Pachuca 0–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 14 September 2024Atlas 2–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 1 February 2024CF Pachuca 4–3 AtlasLiga MX
- 2 November 2023Atlas 0–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and CF Pachuca
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- Luís Esteves51
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón130
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlas carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.63 for CF Pachuca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Atlas and 1.33 for CF Pachuca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlas rate 0.74 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Pachuca rate 0.75 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atlas a 0.5% chance of the title and CF Pachuca 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlas the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Atlas against 1.33 for CF Pachuca. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.17 for CF Pachuca.
How the model reaches 39% for Atlas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atlas to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Atlas's ratings take away 17 points and CF Pachuca's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Atlas's ratings28%−17
- CF Pachuca's ratings39%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlas at home · CF Pachuca away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atlas 13, CF Pachuca 13.
Atlas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); CF Pachuca have let in 5 there.
CF Pachuca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Atlas have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Atlas
- at FC Juarez21 Nov · Liga MXwin 43%
CF Pachuca
- vs Toluca21 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.