Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
Botev Vratsa
First League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv Sofia 1–0 Botev Vratsa
The model makes it 43% Lokomotiv Sofia, 28% draw, 29% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.54, Botev Vratsa 1.17.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lokomotiv Sofia are 12th on 8 points from 11 games; Botev Vratsa are 9th on 9 points from 11 games — First League.
- Lokomotiv Sofia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Botev Vratsa are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Spartak Varna.
- Last 6 meetings: Botev Vratsa 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 May 2026, ended Lokomotiv Sofia 2–2 Botev Vratsa.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
- D1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
- L0-2CSKA Sofia16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
- L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
Botev Vratsa
- L0-1Spartak Varna10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026
- D0-0Levski Sofia13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Arda Kardzhali31 August 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Vratsa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Vratsa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lokomotiv Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Botev Vratsa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
- 5 May 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 2–2 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 14 April 2026Botev Vratsa 3–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 8 November 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 7 May 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 14 February 2025Botev Vratsa 0–3 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 23 August 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv Sofia carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.2 for Botev Vratsa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.17 for Botev Vratsa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.63 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Vratsa rate 0.48 and 1.78.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Botev Vratsa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1.17 for Botev Vratsa. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.78 for Botev Vratsa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lokomotiv Sofia at home · Botev Vratsa away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Lokomotiv Sofia 11, Botev Vratsa 11.
Lokomotiv Sofia score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Botev Vratsa have let in 4 there.
Botev Vratsa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Lokomotiv Sofia have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv Sofia
- at Septemvri Sofia31 Oct · First Leaguewin 42%
- vs Botev Plovdiv7 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- at Levski Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 10%
- vs Slavia Sofia28 Nov · First Leaguewin 38%
- at CSKA 19485 Dec · First Leaguewin 19%
Botev Vratsa
- vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv31 Oct · First Leaguewin 37%
- at Cherno More Varna7 Nov · First Leaguewin 32%
- vs CSKA 194821 Nov · First Leaguewin 24%
- vs Ludogorets28 Nov · First Leaguewin 17%
- at Slavia Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.