Dunav Ruse
vs
Spartak Varna
First League prediction
Our model says: Dunav Ruse 2–1 Spartak Varna
The model makes it 43% Dunav Ruse, 27% draw, 30% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dunav Ruse 1.61, Spartak Varna 1.25.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dunav Ruse are 10th on 8 points from 11 games; Spartak Varna are 7th on 13 points from 11 games — First League.
- Dunav Ruse have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Septemvri Sofia.
- Spartak Varna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Botev Vratsa.
- Last 5 meetings: Spartak Varna 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Spartak Varna 0–0 Dunav Ruse.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunav Ruse at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia11 October 2026
- D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194812 September 2026
- L0-1Slavia Sofia7 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia31 August 2026
Spartak Varna
- W1-0away to Botev Vratsa10 October 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia13 September 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
- D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
What these results say
- Dunav Ruse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Spartak Varna had two goals or fewer.
- Spartak Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 8 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dunav Ruse
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
Spartak Varna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna
- 27 June 2026Spartak Varna 0–0 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 24 January 2026Dunav Ruse 1–3 Spartak VarnaFriendlies Clubs
- 30 March 2024Spartak Varna 3–1 Dunav RuseSecond League
- 17 September 2023Dunav Ruse 0–1 Spartak VarnaSecond League
- 17 July 2021Spartak Varna 0–4 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dunav Ruse carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.16 for Spartak Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Dunav Ruse and 1.25 for Spartak Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunav Ruse rate 0.61 in attack and 2.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Varna rate 0.48 and 1.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Spartak Varna, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunav Ruse the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Dunav Ruse against 1.25 for Spartak Varna. Dunav Ruse's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.92 for Spartak Varna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dunav Ruse at home · Spartak Varna away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Dunav Ruse 11, Spartak Varna 11.
Dunav Ruse score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Spartak Varna have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dunav Ruse
- at Botev Plovdiv31 Oct · First Leaguewin 22%
- vs Levski Sofia7 Nov · First Leaguewin 13%
- at Ludogorets21 Nov · First Leaguewin 11%
- vs CSKA Sofia28 Nov · First Leaguewin 20%
- at Arda Kardzhali5 Dec · First Leaguewin 27%
Spartak Varna
- vs Arda Kardzhali31 Oct · First Leaguewin 32%
- at CSKA 19487 Nov · First Leaguewin 16%
- vs Cherno More Varna21 Nov · First Leaguewin 38%
- at Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 Nov · First Leaguewin 29%
- vs Botev Plovdiv5 Dec · First Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.