Tigres UANL
vs
Cruz Azul
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Tigres UANL 2–1 Cruz Azul
The model makes it 38% Tigres UANL, 27% draw, 35% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tigres UANL 1.53, Cruz Azul 1.47.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Tigres UANL's rating is built from 55 Liga MX matches and Cruz Azul's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 794 matches.
Key facts
- Tigres UANL are 14th on 14 points from 13 games; Cruz Azul are 3rd on 23 points from 13 games — Liga MX.
- Tigres UANL have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Leon.
- Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to CF Pachuca.
- Last 6 meetings: Cruz Azul 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Cruz Azul 2–1 Tigres UANL.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigres UANL at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul
Tigres UANL
Liga MX
- L0-2Leon21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Guadalajara Chivas17 October 2026
- W3-2Toluca10 October 2026
- W1-0Puebla27 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
Cruz Azul
Liga MX
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca22 October 2026
- W5-0FC Juarez18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Pumas UNAM12 October 2026
- D3-3Toluca26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
What these results say
- Tigres UANL conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cruz Azul had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 14 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul
- 15 February 2026Cruz Azul 2–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 7 December 2025Tigres UANL 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 4 December 2025Cruz Azul 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 5 October 2025Tigres UANL 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 2 May 2025Cruz Azul 1–0 Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
- 24 April 2025Tigres UANL 1–1 Cruz AzulCONCACAF Champions League
Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta74
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- G. Fernández51
- N. Ibáñez42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tigres UANL carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.74 for Cruz Azul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.47 for Cruz Azul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigres UANL rate 0.71 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruz Azul rate 1.00 and 1.25.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cruz Azul, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tigres UANL a 0% chance of the title and Cruz Azul 2.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigres UANL the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Tigres UANL against 1.47 for Cruz Azul. Tigres UANL's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.25 for Cruz Azul.
How the model reaches 38% for Tigres UANL to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tigres UANL to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Tigres UANL's ratings take away 14 points and Cruz Azul's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Tigres UANL's ratings31%−14
- Cruz Azul's ratings38%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tigres UANL at home · Cruz Azul away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Tigres UANL 13, Cruz Azul 13.
Cruz Azul score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Tigres UANL have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Tigres UANL
- vs Club America22 Nov · Liga MXwin 36%
Cruz Azul
- at Guadalajara Chivas22 Nov · Liga MXwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.