Arda Kardzhali
vs
Septemvri Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Septemvri Sofia
The model makes it 54% Arda Kardzhali, 25% draw, 21% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arda Kardzhali 1.87, Septemvri Sofia 0.97.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Arda Kardzhali: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Arda Kardzhali's rating is built from 47 Bulgarian First League matches and Septemvri Sofia's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 665 matches.
Key facts
- Arda Kardzhali are 6th on 17 points from 11 games; Septemvri Sofia are 13th on 8 points from 11 games — First League.
- Arda Kardzhali are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Ludogorets.
- Septemvri Sofia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Dunav Ruse.
- Last 6 meetings: Arda Kardzhali 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Arda Kardzhali.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arda Kardzhali at 54% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
First League
- L0-5away to Ludogorets12 October 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA Sofia12 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
Septemvri Sofia
First League
- L2-3Dunav Ruse11 October 2026
- L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets14 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
What these results say
- Arda Kardzhali failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
- 18 July 2026Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 21 March 2026Septemvri Sofia 1–4 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 20 October 2025Arda Kardzhali 0–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 8 July 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–2 Septemvri SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 7 April 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–4 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 25 October 2024Arda Kardzhali 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Arda Kardzhali carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.07 for Septemvri Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.97 for Septemvri Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arda Kardzhali rate 0.61 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Septemvri Sofia rate 0.47 and 2.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arda Kardzhali the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali against 0.97 for Septemvri Sofia. Arda Kardzhali's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.22 for Septemvri Sofia.
How the model reaches 54% for Arda Kardzhali to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Arda Kardzhali to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Arda Kardzhali's ratings take away 23 points and Septemvri Sofia's ratings add 37 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Arda Kardzhali's ratings17%−23
- Septemvri Sofia's ratings54%+37
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arda Kardzhali at home · Septemvri Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Arda KardzhaliSeptemvri Sofia
Arda Kardzhali are 6th after 11 First League matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Septemvri Sofia are 13th after 11 (between 6th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Arda Kardzhali 11, Septemvri Sofia 11.
Arda Kardzhali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Septemvri Sofia have let in 6 there.
Septemvri Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Arda Kardzhali have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Arda Kardzhali
- at Slavia Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 32%
- vs CSKA 194828 Nov · First Leaguewin 28%
- vs Dunav Ruse5 Dec · First Leaguewin 48%
Septemvri Sofia
- vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv21 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- vs Levski Sofia28 Nov · First Leaguewin 11%
- at CSKA Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 10%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.