Mura
vs
Brinje-Grosuplje
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Mura 2–1 Brinje-Grosuplje
The model makes it 40% Mura, 26% draw, 34% Brinje-Grosuplje — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mura 1.61, Brinje-Grosuplje 1.42.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Mura are 9th on 11 points from 12 games; Brinje-Grosuplje are 8th on 11 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Mura have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Nafta.
- Brinje-Grosuplje have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Maribor.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mura at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje
Mura
- D0-0Nafta17 October 2026
- D3-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana10 October 2026
- D0-0Celje20 September 2026
- L1-6Aluminij13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maribor6 September 2026
Brinje-Grosuplje
- L1-2Maribor11 October 2026
- W2-1Radomlje20 September 2026
- L1-2Nafta11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana5 September 2026
- W4-1Celje30 August 2026
What these results say
- Mura did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Brinje-Grosuplje conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Brinje-Grosuplje had three goals or more.
- Brinje-Grosuplje scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mura | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 11 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mura vs Brinje-Grosuplje
- 16 August 2026Brinje-Grosuplje 1–2 Mura1. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mura carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.27 for Brinje-Grosuplje. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Mura and 1.42 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mura rate 0.51 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brinje-Grosuplje rate 0.60 and 1.94.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Brinje-Grosuplje, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mura a 0% chance of the title and Brinje-Grosuplje 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mura the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Mura against 1.42 for Brinje-Grosuplje. Mura's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.94 for Brinje-Grosuplje.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mura at home · Brinje-Grosuplje away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Mura 12, Brinje-Grosuplje 11.
Mura score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Brinje-Grosuplje have let in 4 there.
Brinje-Grosuplje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Mura have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Mura
- at Koper7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 15%
- vs Bravo21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 31%
- vs Maribor28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 24%
- at Aluminij5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 22%
Brinje-Grosuplje
- vs Aluminij7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 41%
- at Celje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 15%
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.