Brisbane Roar
vs
Sydney FC
A-League prediction
Our model says: Brisbane Roar 0–1 Sydney FC
The model makes it 32% Brisbane Roar, 29% draw, 39% Sydney FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Brisbane Roar 1.20, Sydney FC 1.37.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Brisbane Roar are 3rd on 7 points from 3 games; Sydney FC are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games — A-League.
- Brisbane Roar are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Macarthur FC.
- Sydney FC have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Central Coast Mariners.
- Last 6 meetings: Sydney FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Brisbane Roar 2–4 Sydney FC.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC
Has the model earned this number?
Sydney FC at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC
Brisbane Roar
A-League
- W2-1away to Macarthur FC8 November 2026
- D1-1Auckland FC30 October 2026
- W2-1Perth Glory23 October 2026
Sydney FC
A-League
- W4-1Central Coast Mariners6 November 2026
- L1-2away to Melbourne City31 October 2026
- W2-1Adelaide United25 October 2026
- D0-0Western Sydney Wanderers16 October 2026
What these results say
- Sydney FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sydney FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sydney FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Sydney FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC
- 9 August 2026Brisbane Roar 2–4 Sydney FCAustralia Cup
- 2 April 2026Brisbane Roar 0–0 Sydney FCA-League
- 21 February 2026Sydney FC 1–0 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 18 January 2025Sydney FC 3–4 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 1 November 2024Brisbane Roar 2–3 Sydney FCA-League
- 10 March 2024Sydney FC 1–1 Brisbane RoarA-League
Leading scorers: Brisbane Roar and Sydney FC
Brisbane Roar
GoalsAssists
- J. Vidic20
Sydney FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Toure41
- O. Sunday12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Brisbane Roar v Sydney FC has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 32% / 29% / 39%: the biggest move is Brisbane Roar's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Brisbane Roar win32%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Sydney FC win39%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sydney FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Brisbane Roar against 1.37 for Sydney FC. Brisbane Roar's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.35 for Sydney FC.
How the model reaches 39% for Sydney FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sydney FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Brisbane Roar's ratings add 3 points and Sydney FC's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage35%−2
- Both sides at this match's level34%−1
- Brisbane Roar's ratings37%+3
- Sydney FC's ratings39%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Season stats
Brisbane Roar at home · Sydney FC away
League matches only, A-League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All A-League matches this season: Brisbane Roar 3, Sydney FC 4.
Sydney FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Brisbane Roar have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Brisbane Roar
- at Central Coast Mariners12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 41%
- at Adelaide United15 Dec · A-Leaguewin 38%
- vs Western Sydney Wanderers19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 39%
- vs Perth Glory30 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
- at Sydney FC2 Jan · A-Leaguewin 29%
Sydney FC
- vs Melbourne Victory6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 40%
- at Auckland FC12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
- vs Perth Glory18 Dec · A-Leaguewin 41%
- vs Macarthur FC28 Dec · A-Leaguewin 45%
- vs Brisbane Roar2 Jan · A-Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.