Carrarese
vs
Virtus Entella
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Carrarese 1–0 Virtus Entella
The model makes it 41% Carrarese, 31% draw, 28% Virtus Entella — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Carrarese 1.22, Virtus Entella 0.92.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Carrarese's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Virtus Entella's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Carrarese are 17th on 10 points from 11 games; Virtus Entella are 16th on 10 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Carrarese have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sampdoria.
- Virtus Entella are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Modena.
- Last 6 meetings: Carrarese 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Virtus Entella 0–1 Carrarese.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Carrarese vs Virtus Entella
Has the model earned this number?
Carrarese at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Carrarese vs Virtus Entella
Carrarese
Serie B
- L0-1Sampdoria8 November 2026
- L0-3away to Hellas Verona1 November 2026
- W2-1Arezzo28 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palermo25 October 2026
- W2-1Modena17 October 2026
Virtus Entella
Serie B
- L0-2Modena8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Sampdoria31 October 2026
- D1-1Avellino27 October 2026
- L0-1Mantova24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Padova17 October 2026
What these results say
- Carrarese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Carrarese had three goals or more.
- Virtus Entella conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Virtus Entella failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Virtus Entella had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Carrarese | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Virtus Entella | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Carrarese
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Virtus Entella
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 36% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Virtus Entella
- 8 August 2026Virtus Entella 0–1 CarrareseFriendlies Clubs
- 8 May 2026Virtus Entella 2–1 CarrareseSerie B
- 14 December 2025Carrarese 3–1 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 28 July 2024Virtus Entella 0–0 CarrareseFriendlies Clubs
- 10 February 2024Virtus Entella 1–3 CarrareseSerie C - Girone B
- 30 September 2023Carrarese 2–0 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Girone B
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Virtus Entella (16th, with Carrarese 17th), while our numbers lean to Carrarese. Carrarese rate 0.59 in attack and 1.38 in defence, Virtus Entella 0.57 and 1.39 (lower is better in defence), so Carrarese have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Carrarese the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Carrarese against 0.92 for Virtus Entella. Carrarese's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.39 for Virtus Entella.
How the model reaches 41% for Carrarese to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Carrarese to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Carrarese's ratings change nothing and Virtus Entella's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Carrarese's ratings40%±0
- Virtus Entella's ratings41%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Carrarese at home · Virtus Entella away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CarrareseVirtus Entella
Carrarese are 17th after 11 Serie B matches (between 11th and 19th so far); Virtus Entella are 16th after 11 (between 9th and 19th). Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Carrarese 11, Virtus Entella 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Carrarese
- at Vicenza Virtus24 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
- vs Juve Stabia28 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- at Cesena5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Pisa8 Dec · Serie Bwin 34%
- at Cremonese12 Dec · Serie Bwin 22%
Virtus Entella
- vs Hellas Verona24 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
- at Ascoli28 Nov · Serie Bwin 16%
- vs Empoli5 Dec · Serie Bwin 41%
- at Catanzaro8 Dec · Serie Bwin 28%
- vs Arezzo12 Dec · Serie Bwin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.