Regular Season - 12 · 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus Serie B prediction

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno

Our model says: Ascoli 2–0 Vicenza Virtus

The model makes it 65% Ascoli, 21% draw, 14% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Ascoli 2.27, Vicenza Virtus 0.78.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Ascoli are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Ascoli's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Vicenza Virtus's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.

Key facts

  • Ascoli are 3rd on 20 points from 11 games; Vicenza Virtus are 18th on 9 points from 11 games — Serie B.
  • Ascoli are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Palermo.
  • Vicenza Virtus are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Cremonese.
  • Last 6 meetings: Ascoli 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 March 2022, ended Vicenza Virtus 2–0 Ascoli.

More Serie B predictions

All Serie B predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus

49%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ascoli win Draw Vicenza Virtus win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 3–09%
  5. 1–19%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 4–05%

Scores read Ascoli first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ascoli at 65%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus

Ascoli

Serie B

  • D1-1Palermo6 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Arezzo1 November 2026
  • W2-0Sampdoria27 October 2026
  • W6-1away to Catanzaro24 October 2026
  • D1-1Empoli17 October 2026

Vicenza Virtus

Serie B

  • L1-4Cremonese8 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Palermo1 November 2026
  • L1-2Modena27 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Empoli23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Ascoli went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Ascoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
  • Vicenza Virtus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ascoli11551177+1020
18Vicenza Virtus112361424-109

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Ascoli

Chance to finish in the top two · 47% today

Win 50%
Draw 43%
Defeat 39%

Vicenza Virtus

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today

Win 37%
Draw 42%
Defeat 48%

From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus

  • 20 March 2022Vicenza Virtus 2–0 AscoliSerie B
  • 6 November 2021Ascoli 2–1 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • 5 April 2021Ascoli 2–1 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • 19 December 2020Vicenza Virtus 2–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 18 February 2017Vicenza Virtus 1–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 20 September 2016Ascoli 2–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B

Leading scorers: Ascoli and Vicenza Virtus

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Vicenza Virtus

GoalsAssists

  • S. Merkaj31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ascoli a 20.2% chance of the title and Vicenza Virtus 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Ascoli v Vicenza Virtus has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 61% / 23% / 16% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 65% / 21% / 14%: the biggest move is Ascoli's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Ascoli win65%▲ +4
  2. Draw21%▼ −2
  3. Vicenza Virtus win14%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ascoli Vicenza Virtus
0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.72
0.93 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.91
2.27 Model expected goals (this match) 0.78

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ascoli the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Ascoli against 0.78 for Vicenza Virtus. Ascoli's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.91 for Vicenza Virtus.

Ascoli carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.37 for Vicenza Virtus.

How the model reaches 65% for Ascoli to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ascoli to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Ascoli's ratings add 9 points and Vicenza Virtus's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 65%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Ascoli's ratings51%+9
  4. Vicenza Virtus's ratings65%+14

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

AscoliVicenza Virtus
11Matches11
5W 5D 1LRecord2W 3D 6L
17 1.5 per gameGoals scored14 1.3 per game
7 0.6 per gameGoals conceded24 2.2 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets1 of 11
3 of 11Failed to score2 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored–
21 1.9 per gameYellow cards27 2.5 per game
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape3-5-2 8×

Ascoli at home · Vicenza Virtus away

6Played6
3W 3D 0LRecord1W 2D 3L
9–4Goals for – against8–12
2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie B matches this season: Ascoli 11, Vicenza Virtus 11.

Ascoli scored 032514
Vicenza Virtus conceded 263517

Ascoli score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Vicenza Virtus have let in 5 there.

Vicenza Virtus scored 122224
Ascoli conceded 130311

Vicenza Virtus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Ascoli have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Ascoli

  • at Cesena24 Nov · Serie Bwin 46%
  • vs Virtus Entella28 Nov · Serie Bwin 57%
  • at Mantova5 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
  • vs Juve Stabia8 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
  • at Pisa12 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%

Vicenza Virtus

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.