Sampdoria
vs
Benevento
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sampdoria 0–1 Benevento
The model makes it 31% Sampdoria, 30% draw, 39% Benevento — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sampdoria 1.04, Benevento 1.24.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Benevento: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sampdoria's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Benevento's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Sampdoria are 15th on 11 points from 11 games; Benevento are 6th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Sampdoria have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Carrarese.
- Benevento are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Avellino.
- Last 4 meetings: Benevento 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 February 2021, ended Benevento 1–1 Sampdoria.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sampdoria vs Benevento
Has the model earned this number?
Benevento at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sampdoria vs Benevento
Sampdoria
Serie B
- W1-0away to Carrarese8 November 2026
- W2-0Virtus Entella31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Ascoli27 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol24 October 2026
- L1-2Arezzo18 October 2026
Benevento
Serie B
- D1-1Avellino7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Cremonese31 October 2026
- D1-1Catanzaro27 October 2026
- W3-0away to Arezzo24 October 2026
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sampdoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sampdoria had two goals or fewer.
- Benevento failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Benevento conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 11 |
| 6 | Benevento | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sampdoria
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sampdoria vs Benevento
- 7 February 2021Benevento 1–1 SampdoriaSerie A
- 26 September 2020Sampdoria 2–3 BeneventoSerie A
- 6 January 2018Benevento 3–2 SampdoriaSerie A
- 20 August 2017Sampdoria 2–1 BeneventoSerie A
Leading scorers: Sampdoria and Benevento
Sampdoria
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Benevento
GoalsAssists
- A. Siatounis40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sampdoria a 0% chance of the title and Benevento 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benevento the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sampdoria against 1.24 for Benevento. Sampdoria's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.2 for Benevento.
How the model reaches 39% for Benevento to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Benevento to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sampdoria's ratings add 5 points and Benevento's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Sampdoria's ratings34%+5
- Benevento's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sampdoria at home · Benevento away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sampdoria 11, Benevento 11.
Benevento score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Sampdoria have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sampdoria
- at Padova24 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Cremonese28 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
- at Pisa5 Dec · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Modena8 Dec · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Vicenza Virtus12 Dec · Serie Bwin 44%
Benevento
- vs Empoli24 Nov · Serie Bwin 52%
- at Palermo28 Nov · Serie Bwin 23%
- at Juve Stabia5 Dec · Serie Bwin 31%
- vs Padova8 Dec · Serie Bwin 46%
- at Mantova12 Dec · Serie Bwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.