Arezzo
vs
Padova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Arezzo 0–1 Padova
The model makes it 32% Arezzo, 30% draw, 38% Padova — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Arezzo 1.08, Padova 1.24.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Padova: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Arezzo's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Padova's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Arezzo are 14th on 11 points from 11 games; Padova are 10th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Arezzo are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Juve Stabia.
- Padova are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Empoli.
- Last 2 meetings: Padova 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 February 2021, ended Padova 2–0 Arezzo.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arezzo vs Padova
Has the model earned this number?
Padova at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arezzo vs Padova
Arezzo
Serie B
- L0-1away to Juve Stabia7 November 2026
- D0-0Ascoli1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Carrarese28 October 2026
- L0-3Benevento24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sampdoria18 October 2026
Padova
Serie B
- D2-2Empoli7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Catanzaro31 October 2026
- W2-0Sudtirol27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avellino24 October 2026
- L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026
What these results say
- Arezzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Padova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arezzo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
Padova
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Padova
- 17 February 2021Padova 2–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
- 21 October 2020Arezzo 0–5 PadovaSerie C - Girone B
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arezzo a 0% chance of the title and Padova 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Padova the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Arezzo against 1.24 for Padova. Arezzo's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.32 for Padova.
How the model reaches 38% for Padova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Padova to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Arezzo's ratings add 5 points and Padova's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Arezzo's ratings34%+5
- Padova's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Arezzo at home · Padova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Arezzo 11, Padova 11.
Arezzo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Padova have let in 3 there.
Padova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Arezzo have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arezzo
- at Mantova24 Nov · Serie Bwin 19%
- vs Pisa28 Nov · Serie Bwin 28%
- at Modena5 Dec · Serie Bwin 14%
- vs Cesena8 Dec · Serie Bwin 35%
- at Virtus Entella12 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
Padova
- vs Sampdoria24 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Modena28 Nov · Serie Bwin 21%
- vs Vicenza Virtus5 Dec · Serie Bwin 49%
- at Benevento8 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- at Juve Stabia12 Dec · Serie Bwin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.