Audax Italiano
vs
Coquimbo Unido
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Audax Italiano 1–0 Coquimbo Unido
The model makes it 36% Audax Italiano, 28% draw, 36% Coquimbo Unido — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Audax Italiano 1.35, Coquimbo Unido 1.38.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Audax Italiano and Coquimbo Unido are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Audax Italiano are 12th on 29 points from 24 games; Coquimbo Unido are 8th on 32 points from 23 games — Primera División.
- Audax Italiano are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Huachipato.
- Coquimbo Unido have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-2 win at home to Colo Colo.
- Last 6 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Coquimbo Unido 3–0 Audax Italiano.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Audax Italiano at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido
Audax Italiano
Primera División
- D1-1Huachipato23 October 2026
- W1-0O'Higgins13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Concepción5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Colo Colo30 August 2026
- D0-0Union La Calera22 August 2026
Coquimbo Unido
Primera División
- W5-2Colo Colo11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026
- L2-4away to Universidad de Chile6 September 2026
- W1-0Universidad de Concepcion2 September 2026
- L1-2Universidad Catolica26 August 2026
What these results say
- Audax Italiano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Audax Italiano had two goals or fewer.
- Coquimbo Unido scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coquimbo Unido conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Coquimbo Unido had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 29 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido
- 16 May 2026Coquimbo Unido 3–0 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 23 August 2025Audax Italiano 0–1 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
- 30 March 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 24 August 2024Coquimbo Unido 1–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 28 March 2024Audax Italiano 0–1 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
- 25 August 2023Audax Italiano 1–1 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Audax Italiano and Coquimbo Unido
Audax Italiano
GoalsAssists
- G. Chiaverano63
Coquimbo Unido
GoalsAssists
- N. Johansen90
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Audax Italiano carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.51 for Coquimbo Unido. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Audax Italiano and 1.38 for Coquimbo Unido. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Audax Italiano rate 0.55 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Coquimbo Unido rate 0.75 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Coquimbo Unido, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Audax Italiano the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Audax Italiano against 1.38 for Coquimbo Unido. Audax Italiano's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.47 for Coquimbo Unido.
How the model reaches 36% for Audax Italiano to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Audax Italiano to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Audax Italiano's ratings take away 24 points and Coquimbo Unido's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Audax Italiano's ratings20%−24
- Coquimbo Unido's ratings36%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Audax Italiano at home · Coquimbo Unido away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Audax Italiano 24, Coquimbo Unido 23.
Audax Italiano score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Coquimbo Unido have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Audax Italiano
- at Cobresal22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Palestino29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- at Deportes La Serena6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 28%
Coquimbo Unido
- vs Everton de Vina22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 45%
- vs Deportes Limache29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.