Universidad Catolica
vs
Deportes Limache
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad Catolica 2–1 Deportes Limache
The model makes it 54% Universidad Catolica, 23% draw, 23% Deportes Limache — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 2.25, Deportes Limache 1.30.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Universidad Catolica: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Universidad Catolica are 3rd on 42 points from 23 games; Deportes Limache are 6th on 34 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Universidad Catolica are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Palestino.
- Deportes Limache have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Palestino.
- Last 3 meetings: Universidad Catolica 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Deportes Limache 0–2 Universidad Catolica.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad Catolica vs Deportes Limache
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad Catolica at 54% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad Catolica vs Deportes Limache
Universidad Catolica
Primera División
- W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Everton de Vina5 September 2026
- W3-2O'Higgins1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coquimbo Unido26 August 2026
- L1-2Nublense23 August 2026
Deportes Limache
Primera División
- D2-2Palestino11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026
- W3-0Cobresal7 September 2026
- W2-0Nublense3 September 2026
- L0-3Everton de Vina29 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 42 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica vs Deportes Limache
- 17 May 2026Deportes Limache 0–2 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 13 September 2025Deportes Limache 0–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 19 April 2025Universidad Catolica 2–1 Deportes LimachePrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica and Deportes Limache
Universidad Catolica
GoalsAssists
- F. Zampedri222
- J. Giani74
Deportes Limache
GoalsAssists
- D. Castro137
- G. Sosa80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universidad Catolica carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.45 for Deportes Limache. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Universidad Catolica and 1.30 for Deportes Limache. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad Catolica rate 0.83 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes Limache rate 0.73 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universidad Catolica a 2.2% chance of the title and Deportes Limache 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad Catolica the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Universidad Catolica against 1.30 for Deportes Limache. Universidad Catolica's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.62 for Deportes Limache.
How the model reaches 54% for Universidad Catolica to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Universidad Catolica to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Universidad Catolica's ratings take away 14 points and Deportes Limache's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Universidad Catolica's ratings30%−14
- Deportes Limache's ratings54%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad Catolica at home · Deportes Limache away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad Catolica 23, Deportes Limache 24.
Universidad Catolica score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Deportes Limache have let in 4 there.
Deportes Limache score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Universidad Catolica have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Universidad Catolica
- at Colo Colo22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 28%
- vs Huachipato29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 59%
Deportes Limache
- vs Deportes La Serena22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 51%
- at Coquimbo Unido29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Concepción6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.