Deportes La Serena
vs
Palestino
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Deportes La Serena 2–1 Palestino
The model makes it 40% Deportes La Serena, 26% draw, 34% Palestino — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportes La Serena 1.73, Palestino 1.56.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Deportes La Serena are 7th on 33 points from 25 games; Palestino are 5th on 37 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Deportes La Serena have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Concepción.
- Palestino have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Deportes Limache.
- Last 6 meetings: Palestino 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Palestino 5–1 Deportes La Serena.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportes La Serena vs Palestino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes La Serena at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportes La Serena vs Palestino
Deportes La Serena
Primera División
- W3-1Concepción24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Everton de Vina11 October 2026
- L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026
- W2-1Nublense6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Union La Calera31 August 2026
Palestino
Primera División
- D2-2away to Deportes Limache11 October 2026
- L2-3Universidad Catolica12 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Concepcion6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cobresal28 August 2026
- W1-0away to O'Higgins23 August 2026
What these results say
- Deportes La Serena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportes La Serena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportes La Serena had three goals or more.
- Palestino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palestino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Deportes La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 33 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportes La Serena vs Palestino
- 16 May 2026Palestino 5–1 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 29 November 2025Deportes La Serena 0–3 PalestinoPrimera División
- 14 June 2025Palestino 2–1 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 23 October 2022Palestino 5–0 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
- 14 May 2022Deportes La Serena 0–0 PalestinoPrimera División
- 25 October 2021Palestino 3–3 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Deportes La Serena and Palestino
Deportes La Serena
GoalsAssists
- J. Vargas87
- F. Chamorro73
Palestino
GoalsAssists
- N. Da Silva82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportes La Serena carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.48 for Palestino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Deportes La Serena and 1.56 for Palestino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportes La Serena rate 0.70 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palestino rate 0.70 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Palestino, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes La Serena the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Deportes La Serena against 1.56 for Palestino. Deportes La Serena's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.48 for Palestino.
How the model reaches 40% for Deportes La Serena to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Deportes La Serena to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Deportes La Serena's ratings take away 23 points and Palestino's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Deportes La Serena's ratings21%−23
- Palestino's ratings40%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportes La Serena at home · Palestino away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Deportes La Serena 25, Palestino 24.
Palestino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Deportes La Serena have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Deportes La Serena
- at Deportes Limache22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 26%
- at Colo Colo29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Audax Italiano6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
Palestino
- vs Union La Calera22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 56%
- at Audax Italiano29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Everton de Vina6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.