Nublense
vs
Colo Colo
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Nublense 1–2 Colo Colo
The model makes it 28% Nublense, 25% draw, 47% Colo Colo — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Nublense 1.34, Colo Colo 1.91.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
One-sided: Colo Colo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Nublense's rating is built from 54 Chilean Primera División matches and Colo Colo's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- Nublense are 11th on 32 points from 24 games; Colo Colo are top on 54 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Nublense have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat away to Universidad de Chile.
- Colo Colo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat away to Coquimbo Unido.
- Last 6 meetings: Colo Colo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Colo Colo 6–2 Nublense.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nublense vs Colo Colo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Colo Colo at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nublense vs Colo Colo
Nublense
Primera División
- L0-6away to Universidad de Chile12 October 2026
- L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Deportes La Serena6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Deportes Limache3 September 2026
- L0-1Concepción30 August 2026
Colo Colo
Primera División
- L2-5away to Coquimbo Unido11 October 2026
- D1-1Concepción13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Huachipato6 September 2026
- W5-1Audax Italiano30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Universidad de Chile23 August 2026
What these results say
- Nublense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nublense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Colo Colo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colo Colo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Colo Colo.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 32 |
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nublense vs Colo Colo
- 17 May 2026Colo Colo 6–2 NublensePrimera División
- 1 November 2025Nublense 0–1 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 19 May 2025Colo Colo 2–2 NublensePrimera División
- 29 August 2024Colo Colo 2–1 NublensePrimera División
- 6 April 2024Nublense 3–0 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 25 July 2023Nublense 0–0 Colo ColoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Nublense and Colo Colo
Nublense
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Colo Colo
GoalsAssists
- J. Correa135
- M. Romero81
- L. Hernández74
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nublense carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.61 for Colo Colo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Nublense and 1.91 for Colo Colo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nublense rate 0.55 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colo Colo rate 0.89 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nublense a 0% chance of the title and Colo Colo 93.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colo Colo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nublense against 1.91 for Colo Colo. Nublense's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.46 for Colo Colo.
How the model reaches 47% for Colo Colo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Colo Colo to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Nublense's ratings add 31 points and Colo Colo's ratings take away 13 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage29%−8
- Nublense's ratings60%+31
- Colo Colo's ratings47%−13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nublense at home · Colo Colo away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Nublense 24, Colo Colo 24.
Nublense score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Colo Colo have let in 4 there.
Colo Colo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Nublense have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Nublense
- at Universidad de Concepcion22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Cobresal29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
- at Huachipato6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
Colo Colo
- vs Universidad Catolica22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- vs Deportes La Serena29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 61%
- at Cobresal6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.