Everton de Vina
vs
Concepción
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Everton de Vina 1–0 Concepción
The model makes it 47% Everton de Vina, 28% draw, 25% Concepción — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Everton de Vina 1.51, Concepción 0.94.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Everton de Vina's rating is built from 53 Chilean Primera División matches and Concepción's from 25, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- Everton de Vina are 4th on 39 points from 24 games; Concepción are 9th on 32 points from 25 games — Primera División.
- Everton de Vina have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportes La Serena.
- Concepción are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Deportes La Serena.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Everton de Vina vs Concepción
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Everton de Vina at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Everton de Vina vs Concepción
Everton de Vina
Primera División
- W3-2Deportes La Serena11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026
- L0-1Universidad Catolica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Deportes Limache29 August 2026
- W3-1Universidad de Concepcion24 August 2026
Concepción
Primera División
- L1-3away to Deportes La Serena24 October 2026
- D1-1Union La Calera11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026
- L0-1Audax Italiano5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Nublense30 August 2026
What these results say
- Everton de Vina won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton de Vina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton de Vina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Concepción failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Concepción scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Concepción conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 39 |
| 9 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Everton de Vina vs Concepción
- 18 May 2026Concepción 0–2 Everton de VinaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Everton de Vina and Concepción
Everton de Vina
GoalsAssists
- A. Medina123
Concepción
GoalsAssists
- J. Larrivey71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Everton de Vina carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.44 for Concepción. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Everton de Vina and 0.94 for Concepción. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Everton de Vina rate 0.71 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Concepción rate 0.54 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Everton de Vina the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Everton de Vina against 0.94 for Concepción. Everton de Vina's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.27 for Concepción.
How the model reaches 47% for Everton de Vina to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Everton de Vina to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Everton de Vina's ratings take away 17 points and Concepción's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Everton de Vina's ratings27%−17
- Concepción's ratings47%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Everton de Vina at home · Concepción away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Everton de Vina 23, Concepción 25.
Everton de Vina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Concepción have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Everton de Vina
- at Coquimbo Unido22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 29%
- vs O'Higgins29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 54%
- at Palestino6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
Concepción
- at Huachipato22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Universidad de Chile29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 28%
- at Deportes Limache6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.