Regular Season - 5 · 21 November 2026, 06:00 UTC

Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory A-League prediction

Gosford

Our model says: Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Perth Glory

The model makes it 30% Central Coast Mariners, 25% draw, 45% Perth Glory — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Central Coast Mariners 1.50, Perth Glory 1.95.

Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Perth Glory: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Central Coast Mariners's rating is built from 30 A-League matches and Perth Glory's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 362 matches.

Key facts

  • Central Coast Mariners are 11th on 2 points from 4 games; Perth Glory are 5th on 6 points from 4 games — A-League.
  • Central Coast Mariners have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Sydney FC.
  • Perth Glory have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Newcastle Jets.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Perth Glory.

More A-League predictions

All A-League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory

67%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Central Coast Mariners win Draw Perth Glory win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 0–26%
  6. 1–36%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Central Coast Mariners first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Perth Glory at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory

Central Coast Mariners

A-League

  • L1-4away to Sydney FC6 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Melbourne Victory1 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Wellington Phoenix25 October 2026
  • D2-2Newcastle Jets17 October 2026

Perth Glory

A-League

  • W2-1Newcastle Jets7 November 2026
  • W4-0Adelaide United1 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Brisbane Roar23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Macarthur FC17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Central Coast Mariners did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Central Coast Mariners conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Central Coast Mariners scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Perth Glory scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Perth Glory had three goals or more.
  • Perth Glory conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

A-League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Central Coast Mariners402249-52
5Perth Glory420285+36

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory

  • 4 April 2026Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Perth GloryA-League
  • 10 January 2026Perth Glory 3–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
  • 7 November 2025Perth Glory 0–1 Central Coast MarinersA-League
  • 13 May 2025Central Coast Mariners 2–3 Perth GloryAustralia Cup
  • 30 March 2025Central Coast Mariners 3–1 Perth GloryA-League
  • 7 February 2025Perth Glory 1–1 Central Coast MarinersA-League

Leading scorers: Central Coast Mariners and Perth Glory

Central Coast Mariners

GoalsAssists

  • O. Lavale30

Perth Glory

GoalsAssists

  • J. Kucharski31
  • M. Ellis20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 32% / 24% / 44% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 30% / 25% / 45%: the biggest move is Central Coast Mariners's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Central Coast Mariners win30%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Perth Glory win45%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Central Coast Mariners Perth Glory
0.53 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61
2.09 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.71
1.50 Model expected goals (this match) 1.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Perth Glory the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Central Coast Mariners against 1.95 for Perth Glory. Central Coast Mariners's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.71 for Perth Glory.

How the model reaches 45% for Perth Glory to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Perth Glory to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Central Coast Mariners's ratings add 5 points and Perth Glory's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage35%−2
  3. Central Coast Mariners's ratings40%+5
  4. Perth Glory's ratings45%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Central Coast MarinersPerth Glory
4Matches4
0W 2D 2LRecord2W 0D 2L
4 1.0 per gameGoals scored8 2.0 per game
9 2.3 per gameGoals conceded5 1.3 per game
0 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4
1 of 4Failed to score0 of 4
3 of 3Penalties scored–
8 2.0 per gameYellow cards4 1.0 per game
4-4-2 3×Usual shape4-4-2 4×

Central Coast Mariners at home · Perth Glory away

1Played2
0W 1D 0LRecord0W 0D 2L
2–2Goals for – against2–4
0 of 1Clean sheets0 of 2

League matches only, A-League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All A-League matches this season: Central Coast Mariners 4, Perth Glory 4.

Central Coast Mariners scored 100111
Perth Glory conceded 011002
Perth Glory scored 022301
Central Coast Mariners conceded 002411

Perth Glory score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Central Coast Mariners have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Central Coast Mariners

  • vs Auckland FC28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
  • vs Brisbane Roar12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
  • at Macarthur FC21 Dec · A-Leaguewin 31%
  • at Adelaide United27 Dec · A-Leaguewin 31%
  • vs Melbourne City31 Dec · A-Leaguewin 31%

Perth Glory

  • at Western Sydney Wanderers5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 39%
  • vs Melbourne City11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 40%
  • at Sydney FC18 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%
  • at Brisbane Roar30 Dec · A-Leaguewin 38%
  • at Melbourne Victory3 Jan · A-Leaguewin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.