Wigan
vs
Barnsley
League One prediction
Our model says: Wigan 1–0 Barnsley
The model makes it 38% Wigan, 30% draw, 32% Barnsley — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wigan 1.27, Barnsley 1.14.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Wigan's rating is built from 58 League One matches and Barnsley's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- Wigan are bottom on 7 points from 12 games; Barnsley are 23rd on 8 points from 11 games — League One.
- Wigan are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Leicester.
- Barnsley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Reading.
- Last 6 meetings: Wigan 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Barnsley 1–1 Wigan.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wigan vs Barnsley
Has the model earned this number?
Wigan at 38%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wigan vs Barnsley
Wigan
League One
- L0-3away to Leicester27 October 2026
- L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Oxford United20 October 2026
- W1-0Reading17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stevenage10 October 2026
Barnsley
League One
- L1-2away to Reading24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Luton20 October 2026
- L1-2Cambridge United17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Stockport County10 October 2026
- D1-1Leicester19 September 2026
What these results say
- Wigan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wigan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wigan | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 7 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wigan vs Barnsley
- 8 August 2026Barnsley 1–1 WiganLeague Cup
- 17 March 2026Barnsley 1–1 WiganLeague One
- 1 January 2026Wigan 1–1 BarnsleyLeague One
- 29 March 2025Wigan 1–1 BarnsleyLeague One
- 23 November 2024Barnsley 0–1 WiganLeague One
- 13 August 2024Wigan 1–1 BarnsleyLeague Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wigan carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.13 for Barnsley.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Wigan and 1.14 for Barnsley.
Wigan rate 0.39 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barnsley rate 0.51 and 2.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Barnsley, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wigan the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Wigan against 1.14 for Barnsley. Wigan's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.14 for Barnsley.
How the model reaches 38% for Wigan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wigan to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Wigan's ratings take away 2 points and Barnsley's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Wigan's ratings38%−2
- Barnsley's ratings38%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Wigan at home · Barnsley away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Wigan 12, Barnsley 11.
Wigan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Barnsley have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Wigan
- at Blackpool21 Nov · League Onewin 26%
- vs Plymouth28 Nov · League Onewin 28%
- at Burton Albion1 Dec · League Onewin 24%
Barnsley
- vs Sheffield Wednesday20 Nov · League Onewin 29%
- at Bradford24 Nov · League Onewin 20%
- at AFC Wimbledon28 Nov · League Onewin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.