Al-Ittihad
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Ittihad 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
The model makes it 37% Al-Ittihad, 24% draw, 39% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Ittihad 1.81, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.86.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Al-Ittihad and Al-Ahli Jeddah are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Al-Ittihad are 4th on 24 points from 11 games; Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th on 21 points from 11 games — Pro League.
- Al-Ittihad are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Abha.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Al Shabab.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–1 Al-Ittihad.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Ittihad vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Ittihad vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ittihad
Pro League
- D1-1away to Abha30 October 2026
- W2-0Al Diriyah23 October 2026
- W4-1away to Al-Ettifaq20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Hilal10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC11 September 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League
- L1-6away to Al Shabab30 October 2026
- W4-1Al Khaleej Saihat23 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Fayha19 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al-Fateh9 October 2026
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Ittihad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ittihad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Ittihad.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Ittihad | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ittihad vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 6 March 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–1 Al-IttihadPro League
- 8 November 2025Al-Ittihad 0–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 5 April 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–2 Al-IttihadPro League
- 31 October 2024Al-Ittihad 1–0 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 1 April 2024Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al-IttihadPro League
- 6 October 2023Al-Ittihad 0–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ittihad
GoalsAssists
- Y. En-Nesyri70
- G. Ilenikhena63
- S. Bergwijn51
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al-Ittihad (fourth, with Al-Ahli Jeddah sixth), while our numbers lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.11 in attack and 1.25 in defence, Al-Ittihad 0.88 and 1.13 (lower is better in defence), so Al-Ahli Jeddah have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Ittihad a 0.8% chance of the title and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Ittihad against 1.86 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Ittihad's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.25 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
How the model reaches 39% for Al-Ahli Jeddah to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Ahli Jeddah to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al-Ittihad's ratings add 1 point and Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Both sides at this match's level35%+1
- Al-Ittihad's ratings36%+1
- Al-Ahli Jeddah's ratings39%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Ittihad at home · Al-Ahli Jeddah away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ittihad 11, Al-Ahli Jeddah 11.
Al-Ittihad score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Al-Ahli Jeddah have let in 5 there.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al-Ittihad have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Al-Ittihad
- at Al Riyadh3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 57%
- at Al-Wasl FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- vs Al-Ettifaq3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 55%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.