Al Riyadh
vs
Al-Hazm
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Riyadh 1–2 Al-Hazm
The model makes it 33% Al Riyadh, 27% draw, 40% Al-Hazm — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.38, Al-Hazm 1.58.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al Riyadh's rating is built from 45 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Hazm's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al Riyadh are 12th on 12 points from 11 games; Al-Hazm are 14th on 10 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al Riyadh have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat at home to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- Al-Hazm have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Al Khaleej Saihat.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Hazm 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Al-Hazm 2–1 Al Riyadh.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Hazm at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm
Al Riyadh
Pro League
- L0-6Al-Qadisiyah FC29 October 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Diriyah20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
Al-Hazm
Pro League
- L2-4away to Al Khaleej Saihat29 October 2026
- D2-2Al-Fayha22 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Hilal19 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Fateh15 October 2026
- D1-1NEOM10 October 2026
What these results say
- Al Riyadh conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Hazm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 12 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Riyadh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
Al-Hazm
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm
- 24 April 2026Al-Hazm 2–1 Al RiyadhPro League
- 29 December 2025Al Riyadh 1–2 Al-HazmPro League
- 18 May 2024Al-Hazm 1–1 Al RiyadhPro League
- 30 November 2023Al Riyadh 0–0 Al-HazmPro League
- 3 April 2023Al Riyadh 0–0 Al-HazmDivision 1
- 31 October 2022Al-Hazm 2–1 Al RiyadhDivision 1
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Riyadh (12th, with Al-Hazm 14th), while our numbers lean to Al-Hazm. Al-Hazm rate 0.64 in attack and 1.47 in defence, Al Riyadh 0.57 and 1.66 (lower is better in defence), so Al-Hazm have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hazm the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Riyadh against 1.58 for Al-Hazm. Al Riyadh's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.47 for Al-Hazm.
How the model reaches 40% for Al-Hazm to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Hazm to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Al Riyadh's ratings add 3 points and Al-Hazm's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage34%−3
- Al Riyadh's ratings37%+3
- Al-Hazm's ratings40%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Riyadh at home · Al-Hazm away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Riyadh 11, Al-Hazm 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Riyadh
- at Abha26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs Al-Ittihad3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 20%
- at Al-Faisaly FC10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 30%
- vs Al-Ettifaq14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 26%
Al-Hazm
- at Al-Ettifaq26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs Al-Qadisiyah FC3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 15%
- at Al Kholood10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
- vs Abha14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.