Regular Season - 15 · 26 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm Pro League prediction

Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium

Our model says: Al-Ettifaq 2–1 Al-Hazm

The model makes it 48% Al-Ettifaq, 25% draw, 27% Al-Hazm — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Al-Ettifaq 1.84, Al-Hazm 1.25.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Al-Ettifaq: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al-Ettifaq's rating is built from 46 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Hazm's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.

Key facts

  • Al-Ettifaq are 7th on 19 points from 12 games; Al-Hazm are 14th on 10 points from 12 games — Pro League.
  • Al-Ettifaq have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al Taawon.
  • Al-Hazm have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Al Khaleej Saihat.
  • Last 6 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Al-Hazm 3–1 Al-Ettifaq.

More Saudi Pro League predictions

All Saudi Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm

61%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al-Ettifaq win Draw Al-Hazm win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Al-Ettifaq first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Ettifaq at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm

Al-Ettifaq

Pro League

  • D1-1away to Al Taawon31 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Al Kholood24 October 2026
  • L1-4Al-Ittihad20 October 2026
  • W1-0away to NEOM17 October 2026
  • D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat10 October 2026

Al-Hazm

Pro League

  • L2-4away to Al Khaleej Saihat29 October 2026
  • D2-2Al-Fayha22 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Al-Hilal19 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Fateh15 October 2026
  • D1-1NEOM10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Al-Ettifaq scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Al-Hazm did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Al-Hazm conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Al-Hazm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Saudi Arabia Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Al-Ettifaq125431817+119
14Al-Hazm122461420-610

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm

  • 27 February 2026Al-Hazm 3–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 31 October 2025Al-Ettifaq 2–2 Al-HazmPro League
  • 28 December 2023Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al-HazmPro League
  • 18 August 2023Al-Hazm 0–2 Al-EttifaqPro League
  • 21 May 2022Al-Ettifaq 5–2 Al-HazmPro League
  • 21 November 2021Al-Hazm 0–3 Al-EttifaqPro League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Al-Ettifaq Al-Hazm
0.76 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64
1.32 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47
1.84 Model expected goals (this match) 1.25

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Ettifaq the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq against 1.25 for Al-Hazm. Al-Ettifaq's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.47 for Al-Hazm.

How the model reaches 48% for Al-Ettifaq to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Ettifaq to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Al-Ettifaq's ratings add 4 points and Al-Hazm's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage40%+3
  3. Al-Ettifaq's ratings44%+4
  4. Al-Hazm's ratings48%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Al-EttifaqAl-Hazm
12Matches12
5W 4D 3LRecord2W 4D 6L
18 1.5 per gameGoals scored14 1.2 per game
17 1.4 per gameGoals conceded20 1.7 per game
5 of 12Clean sheets2 of 12
2 of 12Failed to score3 of 12
3 of 3Penalties scored3 of 3
27 2.3 per gameYellow cards28 2.3 per game
4-2-3-1 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Al-Ettifaq at home · Al-Hazm away

6Played6
1W 2D 3LRecord1W 1D 4L
8–13Goals for – against7–12
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Pro League matches this season: Al-Ettifaq 12, Al-Hazm 12.

Al-Ettifaq scored 024218
Al-Hazm conceded 135334

Al-Ettifaq score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Al-Hazm have let in 4 there.

Al-Hazm scored 424212
Al-Ettifaq conceded 321327

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Al-Ettifaq

  • at Al-Ahli Jeddah3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 23%
  • vs Al-Fayha10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 45%
  • at Al Riyadh14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 49%

Al-Hazm

  • vs Al-Qadisiyah FC3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 15%
  • at Al Kholood10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 37%
  • vs Abha14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 43%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.