Al-Nassr
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Nassr 2–1 Al-Qadisiyah FC
The model makes it 39% Al-Nassr, 24% draw, 37% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 2.56, 4.17 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Nassr 1.91, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.86.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Al-Nassr's rating is built from 45 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Qadisiyah FC's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Nassr are 3rd on 28 points from 11 games; Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2nd on 28 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al-Nassr are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-3 win at home to Al Kholood.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-0 win away to Al Riyadh.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–1 Al-Nassr.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Nassr at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Nassr
Pro League
- W5-3Al Kholood29 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC23 October 2026
- W1-0NEOM20 October 2026
- W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League
- W6-0away to Al Riyadh29 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Hilal23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Al Taawon20 October 2026
- W2-1Abha16 October 2026
- W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Nassr went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Qadisiyah FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Nassr
Chance to win the league · 12% today
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Chance to win the league · 17% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 3 May 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–1 Al-NassrPro League
- 8 January 2026Al-Nassr 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 18 April 2025Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–1 Al-NassrPro League
- 22 November 2024Al-Nassr 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 18 February 2021Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–0 Al-NassrPro League
- 7 November 2020Al-Nassr 2–0 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders83
- M. Retegui72
- J. Quiñones65
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al-Qadisiyah FC (second, with Al-Nassr third), while our numbers lean to Al-Nassr. Al-Nassr rate 1.16 in attack and 1.02 in defence, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.23 and 1.00 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Nassr a 12.4% chance of the title and Al-Qadisiyah FC 16.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 1.86 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
How the model reaches 39% for Al-Nassr to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Nassr to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al-Nassr's ratings take away 1 point and Al-Qadisiyah FC's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level41%+1
- Al-Nassr's ratings40%−1
- Al-Qadisiyah FC's ratings39%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Nassr at home · Al-Qadisiyah FC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Nassr 11, Al-Qadisiyah FC 12.
Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al-Qadisiyah FC have let in 1 there.
Al-Qadisiyah FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Al-Nassr have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Nassr
- vs Al Sadd24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 72%
- vs Al Shabab26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at Al-Fayha3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 60%
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- at Shabab Al Ahli Dubai24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 44%
- vs Al-Fateh26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 75%
- at Al-Hazm3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 66%
- vs Al Shamal7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 81%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.