Al-Qadisiyah FC
vs
Al-Fateh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–0 Al-Fateh
The model makes it 75% Al-Qadisiyah FC, 15% draw, 10% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 1.33, 6.67 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.10, Al-Fateh 0.85.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Qadisiyah FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al-Qadisiyah FC's rating is built from 46 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Fateh's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2nd on 28 points from 12 games; Al-Fateh are 16th on 6 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-0 win away to Al Riyadh.
- Al-Fateh are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al-Hilal.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al-Fateh.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Qadisiyah FC at 75%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League
- W6-0away to Al Riyadh29 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Hilal23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Al Taawon20 October 2026
- W2-1Abha16 October 2026
- W5-0away to Al Kholood9 October 2026
Al-Fateh
Pro League
- L0-2away to Al-Hilal31 October 2026
- L1-3Al Shabab22 October 2026
- L2-3Al Khaleej Saihat18 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Qadisiyah FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Qadisiyah FC had three goals or more.
- Al-Fateh conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Fateh had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 12 | +20 | 28 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh
- 7 February 2026Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 27 September 2025Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 1 February 2025Al-Fateh 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 23 August 2024Al-Qadisiyah FC 3–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 25 May 2021Al-Fateh 3–0 Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
- 19 January 2021Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–1 Al-FatehPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh
Al-Qadisiyah FC
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders83
- M. Retegui72
- J. Quiñones65
Al-Fateh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 16.7% chance of the title and Al-Fateh 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.10 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 0.85 for Al-Fateh. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack/defence rating is 1.23/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.53 for Al-Fateh.
How the model reaches 75% for Al-Qadisiyah FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Qadisiyah FC to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Al-Qadisiyah FC's ratings add 20 points and Al-Fateh's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 75%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Al-Qadisiyah FC's ratings60%+20
- Al-Fateh's ratings75%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Qadisiyah FC at home · Al-Fateh away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Qadisiyah FC 12, Al-Fateh 12.
Al-Qadisiyah FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Al-Fateh have let in 6 there.
Al-Fateh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Al-Qadisiyah FC have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- at Al-Hazm3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 66%
- vs Al Shamal7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 81%
Al-Fateh
- vs Al Kholood3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Abha10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Al-Nassr14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 14%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.