Al-Fayha
vs
Al-Fateh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Fayha 2–1 Al-Fateh
The model makes it 46% Al-Fayha, 26% draw, 28% Al-Fateh — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Fayha 1.72, Al-Fateh 1.20.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Al-Fayha: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al-Fayha's rating is built from 46 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Fateh's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Fayha are 13th on 11 points from 12 games; Al-Fateh are 16th on 6 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al-Fayha have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Al-Faisaly FC.
- Al-Fateh are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al-Hilal.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Fayha 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Al-Fayha 2–0 Al-Fateh.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Fayha at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh
Al-Fayha
Pro League
- W4-1Al-Faisaly FC31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Hazm22 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Ahli Jeddah19 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Khaleej Saihat15 October 2026
- D1-1Al Riyadh11 October 2026
Al-Fateh
Pro League
- L0-2away to Al-Hilal31 October 2026
- L1-3Al Shabab22 October 2026
- L2-3Al Khaleej Saihat18 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al-Hazm15 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Ahli Jeddah9 October 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fayha conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Fateh had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Fayha
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Al-Fateh
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 58% today
From our Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh
- 25 January 2026Al-Fayha 2–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 30 August 2025Al-Fateh 1–2 Al-FayhaPro League
- 6 April 2025Al-Fayha 1–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 2 November 2024Al-Fateh 1–1 Al-FayhaPro League
- 9 May 2024Al-Fayha 2–2 Al-FatehPro League
- 25 November 2023Al-Fateh 0–1 Al-FayhaPro League
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Fayha the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al-Fayha against 1.20 for Al-Fateh. Al-Fayha's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.53 for Al-Fateh.
How the model reaches 46% for Al-Fayha to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Fayha to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Fayha's ratings add 4 points and Al-Fateh's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level39%−1
- Al-Fayha's ratings43%+4
- Al-Fateh's ratings46%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Fayha at home · Al-Fateh away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Fayha 12, Al-Fateh 12.
Al-Fayha score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al-Fateh have let in 6 there.
Al-Fateh score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Al-Fayha have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Fayha
- at Al Diriyah26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al-Nassr3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Al-Ettifaq10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 29%
- vs NEOM14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 29%
Al-Fateh
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 10%
- vs Al Kholood3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 38%
- at Abha10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- vs Al-Nassr14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 14%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.