Al Diriyah
vs
Al-Fayha
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Diriyah 1–0 Al-Fayha
The model makes it 37% Al Diriyah, 30% draw, 33% Al-Fayha — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al Diriyah 1.22, Al-Fayha 1.12.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al Diriyah's rating is built from 12 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Fayha's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al Diriyah are 8th on 15 points from 12 games; Al-Fayha are 13th on 11 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al Diriyah have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to NEOM.
- Al-Fayha have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Al-Faisaly FC.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha
Has the model earned this number?
Al Diriyah at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha
Al Diriyah
Pro League
- L1-2NEOM30 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al-Ittihad23 October 2026
- W1-0Al Riyadh20 October 2026
- D1-1Al Taawon17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Nassr9 October 2026
Al-Fayha
Pro League
- W4-1Al-Faisaly FC31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Hazm22 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Ahli Jeddah19 October 2026
- L0-2away to Al Khaleej Saihat15 October 2026
- D1-1Al Riyadh11 October 2026
What these results say
- Al Diriyah failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Diriyah conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Fayha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Diriyah the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al Diriyah against 1.12 for Al-Fayha. Al Diriyah's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.42 for Al-Fayha.
How the model reaches 37% for Al Diriyah to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Diriyah to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Al Diriyah's ratings take away 1 point and Al-Fayha's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level37%−3
- Al Diriyah's ratings36%−1
- Al-Fayha's ratings37%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Diriyah at home · Al-Fayha away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Diriyah 12, Al-Fayha 12.
Al Diriyah score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al-Fayha have let in 2 there.
Al-Fayha score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al Diriyah have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al Diriyah
- at Al Khaleej Saihat3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al Shabab10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 32%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 19%
Al-Fayha
- vs Al-Nassr3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 19%
- at Al-Ettifaq10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 29%
- vs NEOM14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.