Al Shabab
vs
Al-Ettifaq
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Shabab 2–1 Al-Ettifaq
The model makes it 42% Al Shabab, 25% draw, 33% Al-Ettifaq — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.81, Al-Ettifaq 1.53.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al Shabab's rating is built from 45 Saudi Pro League matches and Al-Ettifaq's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al Shabab are 10th on 14 points from 11 games; Al-Ettifaq are 7th on 19 points from 12 games — Pro League.
- Al Shabab are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- Al-Ettifaq have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Al Taawon.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al Shabab.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq
Has the model earned this number?
Al Shabab at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq
Al Shabab
Pro League
- W6-1Al-Ahli Jeddah30 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Fateh22 October 2026
- D2-2Al-Faisaly FC19 October 2026
- W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
Al-Ettifaq
Pro League
- D1-1away to Al Taawon31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Al Kholood24 October 2026
- L1-4Al-Ittihad20 October 2026
- W1-0away to NEOM17 October 2026
- D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat10 October 2026
What these results say
- Al Shabab went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al Shabab scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Shabab had three goals or more.
- Al-Ettifaq scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 14 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq
- 7 March 2026Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al ShababPro League
- 8 November 2025Al Shabab 1–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
- 31 January 2025Al-Ettifaq 3–1 Al ShababPro League
- 24 August 2024Al Shabab 0–1 Al-EttifaqPro League
- 23 May 2024Al-Ettifaq 1–0 Al ShababPro League
- 7 December 2023Al Shabab 0–0 Al-EttifaqPro League
Leading scorers: Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq
Al Shabab
GoalsAssists
- Y. Carrasco61
Al-Ettifaq
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al-Ettifaq (seventh, with Al Shabab tenth), while our numbers lean to Al Shabab. Al Shabab rate 0.83 in attack and 1.36 in defence, Al-Ettifaq 0.76 and 1.32 (lower is better in defence), so Al Shabab have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Shabab the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al Shabab against 1.53 for Al-Ettifaq. Al Shabab's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.32 for Al-Ettifaq.
How the model reaches 42% for Al Shabab to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Shabab to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al Shabab's ratings change nothing and Al-Ettifaq's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level41%+1
- Al Shabab's ratings41%±0
- Al-Ettifaq's ratings42%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Shabab at home · Al-Ettifaq away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Shabab 11, Al-Ettifaq 12.
Al Shabab score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al-Ettifaq have let in 1 there.
Al-Ettifaq score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Al Shabab have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Shabab
- at Al-Nassr26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 19%
- vs NEOM3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Al Diriyah10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 17%
Al-Ettifaq
- vs Al-Hazm26 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 48%
- at Al-Ahli Jeddah3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Al-Fayha10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Al Riyadh14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.