Al-Nassr
vs
Al Shabab
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Nassr 2–1 Al Shabab
The model makes it 61% Al-Nassr, 20% draw, 19% Al Shabab — fair odds of 1.64, 5.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Al-Nassr 2.60, Al Shabab 1.26.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Nassr are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Al-Nassr's rating is built from 45 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Shabab's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Nassr are 3rd on 28 points from 11 games; Al Shabab are 10th on 14 points from 11 games — Pro League.
- Al-Nassr are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-3 win at home to Al Kholood.
- Al Shabab are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Nassr 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 May 2026, ended Al Shabab 2–4 Al-Nassr.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Nassr at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab
Al-Nassr
Pro League
- W5-3Al Kholood29 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Faisaly FC23 October 2026
- W1-0NEOM20 October 2026
- W3-0Al Diriyah9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Khaleej Saihat12 September 2026
Al Shabab
Pro League
- W6-1Al-Ahli Jeddah30 October 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Fateh22 October 2026
- D2-2Al-Faisaly FC19 October 2026
- W3-0Al Taawon11 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Fayha12 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Nassr went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Nassr won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Shabab went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al Shabab scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Shabab had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 28 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Nassr vs Al Shabab
- 7 May 2026Al Shabab 2–4 Al-NassrPro League
- 17 January 2026Al-Nassr 3–2 Al ShababPro League
- 7 March 2025Al-Nassr 2–2 Al ShababPro League
- 18 October 2024Al Shabab 1–2 Al-NassrPro League
- 25 February 2024Al Shabab 2–3 Al-NassrPro League
- 11 December 2023Al Shabab 2–5 Al-NassrKing's Cup
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al Shabab
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Cristiano Ronaldo80
- Ângelo53
Al Shabab
GoalsAssists
- Y. Carrasco61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Nassr a 12.4% chance of the title and Al Shabab 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 1.26 for Al Shabab. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.36 for Al Shabab.
How the model reaches 61% for Al-Nassr to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Nassr to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al-Nassr's ratings add 10 points and Al Shabab's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level41%+1
- Al-Nassr's ratings51%+10
- Al Shabab's ratings61%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Nassr at home · Al Shabab away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Nassr 11, Al Shabab 11.
Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Al Shabab have let in 6 there.
Al Shabab score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Al-Nassr have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Nassr
- at Al-Fayha3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 60%
Al Shabab
- vs NEOM3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Al Diriyah10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.