Abha
vs
Al Riyadh
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Abha 1–0 Al Riyadh
The model makes it 39% Abha, 29% draw, 32% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Abha 1.31, Al Riyadh 1.15.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Abha's rating is built from 11 Saudi Pro League matches and Al Riyadh's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 716 matches.
Key facts
- Abha are bottom on 3 points from 11 games; Al Riyadh are 12th on 12 points from 11 games — Pro League.
- Abha have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Al-Ittihad.
- Al Riyadh have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat at home to Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 March 2024, ended Al Riyadh 1–1 Abha.
More Saudi Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Abha vs Al Riyadh
Has the model earned this number?
Abha at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Abha vs Al Riyadh
Abha
Pro League
- D1-1Al-Ittihad30 October 2026
- L0-1Al-Faisaly FC27 October 2026
- L0-2away to NEOM24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al Diriyah13 September 2026
Al Riyadh
Pro League
- L0-6Al-Qadisiyah FC29 October 2026
- W2-1Al Taawon24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Diriyah20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Fayha11 October 2026
- W2-0Al Kholood13 September 2026
What these results say
- Abha did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Abha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Abha had two goals or fewer.
- Al Riyadh conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Abha vs Al Riyadh
- 30 March 2024Al Riyadh 1–1 AbhaPro League
- 30 September 2023Abha 0–1 Al RiyadhPro League
- 2 February 2018Abha 1–0 Al RiyadhDivision 2
- 17 November 2017Al Riyadh 1–1 AbhaDivision 2
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Riyadh (12th, with Abha 18th), while our numbers lean to Abha. Abha rate 0.48 in attack and 1.36 in defence, Al Riyadh 0.57 and 1.66 (lower is better in defence), so Abha have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 9-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Abha the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Abha against 1.15 for Al Riyadh. Abha's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.66 for Al Riyadh.
How the model reaches 39% for Abha to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Abha to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Abha's ratings take away 1 point and Al Riyadh's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Both sides at this match's level38%−2
- Abha's ratings37%−1
- Al Riyadh's ratings39%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Abha at home · Al Riyadh away
League matches only, Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Abha 11, Al Riyadh 11.
Abha score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Al Riyadh have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Abha
- at Al-Hilal3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 8%
- vs Al Kholood7 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
- vs Al-Fateh10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 36%
Al Riyadh
- vs Al-Ittihad3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 20%
- at Al-Faisaly FC10 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 30%
- vs Al-Ettifaq14 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.