Regular Season - 16 · 26 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Aalborg vs Esbjerg 1. Division prediction

Aalborg Portland Park, Aalborg

Our model says: Aalborg 2–1 Esbjerg

The model makes it 43% Aalborg, 27% draw, 30% Esbjerg — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Aalborg 1.58, Esbjerg 1.24.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Aalborg's rating is built from 46 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Esbjerg's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Aalborg are 6th on 16 points from 14 games; Esbjerg are 10th on 14 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
  • Aalborg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to HB Koge.
  • Esbjerg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Hobro.
  • Last 6 meetings: Esbjerg 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Esbjerg 3–3 Aalborg.

More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions

All 1. Division (Denmark) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Aalborg vs Esbjerg

57%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Aalborg win Draw Esbjerg win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–07%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 0–07%

Scores read Aalborg first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Aalborg at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Aalborg vs Esbjerg

Aalborg

1. Division

  • D1-1away to HB Koge6 November 2026
  • D1-1Hobro30 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hillerød24 October 2026
  • L0-1Vejle17 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Esbjerg10 October 2026

Esbjerg

1. Division

  • W1-0away to Hobro7 November 2026
  • D1-1Hvidovre31 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Fredericia24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Aarhus Fremad16 October 2026
  • D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Aalborg did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Aalborg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Aalborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Esbjerg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Esbjerg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Aalborg143741719-216
10Esbjerg143561724-714

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Aalborg vs Esbjerg

  • 10 October 2026Esbjerg 3–3 Aalborg1. Division
  • 21 March 2026Aalborg 1–1 Esbjerg1. Division
  • 19 August 2025Esbjerg 1–0 Aalborg1. Division
  • 30 October 2024Esbjerg 0–2 AalborgDBU Pokalen
  • 30 June 2021Aalborg 0–0 EsbjergFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 August 2020Esbjerg 2–1 AalborgFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Aalborg Esbjerg
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.51
2.01 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.02
1.58 Model expected goals (this match) 1.24

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Aalborg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Aalborg against 1.24 for Esbjerg. Aalborg's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.02 for Esbjerg.

How the model reaches 43% for Aalborg to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Aalborg to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Aalborg's ratings take away 1 point and Esbjerg's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Aalborg's ratings43%−1
  4. Esbjerg's ratings43%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

AalborgEsbjerg
14Matches14
3W 7D 4LRecord3W 5D 6L
17 1.2 per gameGoals scored17 1.2 per game
19 1.4 per gameGoals conceded24 1.7 per game
3 of 14Clean sheets2 of 14
3 of 14Failed to score4 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored–
21 1.5 per gameYellow cards17 1.2 per game
1Red cards1

Aalborg at home · Esbjerg away

7Played7
1W 4D 2LRecord2W 1D 4L
5–8Goals for – against7–12
2 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Aalborg 14, Esbjerg 14.

Aalborg scored 532115
Esbjerg conceded 140558
Esbjerg scored 333432
Aalborg conceded 521524

Esbjerg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Aalborg have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Aalborg

  • at Vendsyssel FF5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%
  • vs AB Copenhagen20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 33%
  • at Vejle27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 19%
  • vs Aarhus Fremad6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 37%

Esbjerg

  • at Kolding IF4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 30%
  • vs Aarhus Fremad20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 39%
  • at Vendsyssel FF27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 35%
  • vs Vejle6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.