Regular Season - 11 · 27 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol 1. Division prediction

AEK Arena, Larnaca

Our model says: AEK Larnaca 2–1 Apollon Limassol

The model makes it 52% AEK Larnaca, 25% draw, 23% Apollon Limassol — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: AEK Larnaca 1.90, Apollon Limassol 1.06.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.

Edge to AEK Larnaca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. AEK Larnaca's rating is built from 45 Cypriot First Division matches and Apollon Limassol's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • AEK Larnaca are top on 20 points from 9 games; Apollon Limassol are 5th on 16 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
  • AEK Larnaca are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Karmiotissa.
  • Apollon Limassol have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Olympiakos.
  • Last 6 meetings: AEK Larnaca 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended AEK Larnaca 3–0 Apollon Limassol.

More Cypriot First Division predictions

All Cypriot First Division predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol

56%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

AEK Larnaca win Draw Apollon Limassol win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–09%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read AEK Larnaca first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

AEK Larnaca at 52%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol

AEK Larnaca

1. Division

  • W4-1Karmiotissa6 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Krasava Ypsonas31 October 2026
  • W2-0Omonia Nicosia26 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Aris18 October 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026

Apollon Limassol

1. Division

  • L0-1away to Olympiakos7 November 2026
  • D2-2Pafos31 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Karmiotissa25 October 2026
  • W4-2Nea Salamis17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026

What these results say

  • AEK Larnaca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • AEK Larnaca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Apollon Limassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Apollon Limassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Apollon Limassol had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1AEK Larnaca9621198+1120
5Apollon Limassol94412111+1016

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol

  • 3 October 2026AEK Larnaca 3–0 Apollon LimassolFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 July 2026Apollon Limassol 0–0 AEK LarnacaFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 May 2026AEK Larnaca 1–0 Apollon Limassol1. Division
  • 5 April 2026Apollon Limassol 1–1 AEK Larnaca1. Division
  • 14 February 2026AEK Larnaca 0–1 Apollon Limassol1. Division
  • 2 November 2025Apollon Limassol 1–2 AEK Larnaca1. Division

Leading scorers: AEK Larnaca and Apollon Limassol

AEK Larnaca

GoalsAssists

  • Đ. Ivanović21

Apollon Limassol

GoalsAssists

  • Brandon Thomas41
  • A. Ožbolt40
  • Garry Rodrigues24

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AEK Larnaca a 28% chance of the title and Apollon Limassol 7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

AEK Larnaca Apollon Limassol
0.98 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.97
0.91 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.19
1.90 Model expected goals (this match) 1.06

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AEK Larnaca the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for AEK Larnaca against 1.06 for Apollon Limassol. AEK Larnaca's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.19 for Apollon Limassol.

AEK Larnaca carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.75 for Apollon Limassol. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 52% for AEK Larnaca to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEK Larnaca to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, AEK Larnaca's ratings add 4 points and Apollon Limassol's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. AEK Larnaca's ratings48%+4
  4. Apollon Limassol's ratings52%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

AEK LarnacaApollon Limassol
9Matches9
6W 2D 1LRecord4W 4D 1L
19 2.1 per gameGoals scored21 2.3 per game
8 0.9 per gameGoals conceded11 1.2 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9
1 of 9Failed to score2 of 9
0 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3
21 2.3 per gameYellow cards23 2.6 per game
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

AEK Larnaca at home · Apollon Limassol away

5Played5
4W 0D 1LRecord2W 2D 1L
10–3Goals for – against10–4
2 of 5Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: AEK Larnaca 9, Apollon Limassol 9.

AEK Larnaca scored 033327
Apollon Limassol conceded 234021

AEK Larnaca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Apollon Limassol have let in 1 there.

Apollon Limassol scored 325235
AEK Larnaca conceded 023112

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

AEK Larnaca

  • vs AEL1 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 65%
  • at Anorthosis7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 52%
  • at Apoel Nicosia12 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 38%
  • vs Nea Salamis20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 69%

Apollon Limassol

  • vs Omonia Aradippou2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 64%
  • at AEL6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 42%
  • vs Aris13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 54%
  • at Anorthosis19 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.