Regular Season - 10 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Omonia Nicosia vs Apoel Nicosia 1. Division prediction

GSP Stadium, Nicosia

Our model says: Omonia Nicosia 2–0 Apoel Nicosia

The model makes it 62% Omonia Nicosia, 22% draw, 16% Apoel Nicosia — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 2.15, Apoel Nicosia 0.84.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Omonia Nicosia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Omonia Nicosia's rating is built from 45 Cypriot First Division matches and Apoel Nicosia's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Omonia Nicosia are 2nd on 18 points from 9 games; Apoel Nicosia are 4th on 17 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
  • Omonia Nicosia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Anorthosis.
  • Apoel Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Aris.
  • Last 6 meetings: Omonia Nicosia 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Apoel Nicosia 0–3 Omonia Nicosia.

More Cypriot First Division predictions

All Cypriot First Division predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Omonia Nicosia vs Apoel Nicosia

50%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Omonia Nicosia win Draw Apoel Nicosia win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 1–110%
  5. 3–08%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–05%

Scores read Omonia Nicosia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Omonia Nicosia at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Apoel Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia

1. Division

  • W2-0away to Anorthosis8 November 2026
  • W2-0AEL31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to AEK Larnaca26 October 2026
  • D2-2Olympiakos19 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Karmiotissa9 October 2026

Apoel Nicosia

1. Division

  • W3-1Aris8 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Omonia Aradippou1 November 2026
  • W4-1Omonia 29is Maiou25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Pafos19 October 2026
  • W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Omonia Nicosia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Apoel Nicosia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Apoel Nicosia won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Apoel Nicosia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Omonia Nicosia9531176+1118
4Apoel Nicosia95222111+1017

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Omonia Nicosia

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 54% today

Win 58%
Draw 49%
Defeat 39%

Apoel Nicosia

Chance to finish in the top six · 85% today

Win 90%
Draw 87%
Defeat 83%

From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Omonia Nicosia vs Apoel Nicosia

  • 16 May 2026Apoel Nicosia 0–3 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
  • 18 April 2026Omonia Nicosia 2–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 22 February 2026Apoel Nicosia 1–0 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
  • 9 November 2025Omonia Nicosia 2–2 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 18 May 2025Omonia Nicosia 2–1 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
  • 13 April 2025Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Omonia Nicosia1. Division

Leading scorers: Omonia Nicosia and Apoel Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • L. Diony30
  • Ľ. Šatka21
  • L. Brouwers20

Apoel Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pedrozo50
  • Marquinhos20
  • K. Stafylidis11

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Omonia Nicosia a 54.3% chance of the title and Apoel Nicosia 5.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Omonia Nicosia Apoel Nicosia
1.09 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.9
0.77 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.21
2.15 Model expected goals (this match) 0.84

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia against 0.84 for Apoel Nicosia. Omonia Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.21 for Apoel Nicosia.

Omonia Nicosia carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.7 for Apoel Nicosia.

How the model reaches 62% for Omonia Nicosia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Omonia Nicosia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Omonia Nicosia's ratings add 8 points and Apoel Nicosia's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 62%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Omonia Nicosia's ratings52%+8
  4. Apoel Nicosia's ratings62%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Omonia NicosiaApoel Nicosia
9Matches9
5W 3D 1LRecord5W 2D 2L
17 1.9 per gameGoals scored21 2.3 per game
6 0.7 per gameGoals conceded11 1.2 per game
5 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9
3 of 9Failed to score1 of 9
1 of 2Penalties scored4 of 4
20 2.2 per gameYellow cards19 2.1 per game
0Red cards2
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Omonia Nicosia at home · Apoel Nicosia away

5Played5
2W 3D 0LRecord1W 2D 2L
8–3Goals for – against6–8
3 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Omonia Nicosia 9, Apoel Nicosia 9.

Omonia Nicosia scored 412325
Apoel Nicosia conceded 320112

Omonia Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Apoel Nicosia have let in 2 there.

Apoel Nicosia scored 333329
Omonia Nicosia conceded 003210

Apoel Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Omonia Nicosia have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Omonia Nicosia

  • at Juventus26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
  • at Nea Salamis30 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 59%
  • vs Pafos3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 56%
  • at Omonia 29is Maiou7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 60%
  • vs Celtic10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 57%

Apoel Nicosia

  • vs Krasava Ypsonas28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 66%
  • at Karmiotissa2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 55%
  • vs Olympiakos5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 52%
  • vs AEK Larnaca12 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 34%
  • at AEL20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.