Regular Season - 10 · 21 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Aris vs Nea Salamis 1. Division prediction

Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

Our model says: Aris 2–1 Nea Salamis

The model makes it 53% Aris, 24% draw, 23% Nea Salamis — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Aris 2.12, Nea Salamis 1.22.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Aris's rating is built from 45 Cypriot First Division matches and Nea Salamis's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Aris are 7th on 15 points from 9 games; Nea Salamis are 10th on 8 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
  • Aris have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Apoel Nicosia.
  • Nea Salamis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Omonia Aradippou.
  • Last 6 meetings: Aris 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2025, ended Nea Salamis 2–2 Aris.

More Cypriot First Division predictions

All Cypriot First Division predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Aris vs Nea Salamis

63%
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Aris win Draw Nea Salamis win
  1. 2–110%
  2. 1–110%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 3–17%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Aris first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Aris at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Aris vs Nea Salamis

Aris

1. Division

  • L1-3away to Apoel Nicosia8 November 2026
  • W2-1Anorthosis1 November 2026
  • W3-1away to AEL25 October 2026
  • D1-1AEK Larnaca18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026

Nea Salamis

1. Division

  • W3-2Omonia Aradippou6 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou1 November 2026
  • D0-0Pafos26 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Apollon Limassol17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Apoel Nicosia10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Aris scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Aris conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Aris.
  • Nea Salamis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Nea Salamis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Aris94321313015
10Nea Salamis92251418-48

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Aris

Chance to finish in the top six · 61% today

Win 67%
Draw 56%
Defeat 47%

Nea Salamis

Chance to finish in the top six · 7% today

Win 14%
Draw 7%
Defeat 4%

From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Aris vs Nea Salamis

  • 1 February 2025Nea Salamis 2–2 Aris1. Division
  • 26 October 2024Aris 2–1 Nea Salamis1. Division
  • 6 February 2024Nea Salamis 0–3 Aris1. Division
  • 4 November 2023Aris 2–1 Nea Salamis1. Division
  • 18 February 2023Aris 3–0 Nea Salamis1. Division
  • 11 November 2022Nea Salamis 1–3 Aris1. Division

Leading scorers: Aris and Nea Salamis

Aris

GoalsAssists

  • R. Effaghe40

Nea Salamis

GoalsAssists

  • S. Grandsir30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aris a 0.6% chance of the title and Nea Salamis 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Aris v Nea Salamis has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 55% / 23% / 22% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 53% / 24% / 23%: the biggest move is Aris's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Aris win53%▼ −2
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Nea Salamis win23%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Aris Nea Salamis
0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.77
1.32 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.63
2.12 Model expected goals (this match) 1.22

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Aris the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Aris against 1.22 for Nea Salamis. Aris's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.63 for Nea Salamis.

Aris carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.48 for Nea Salamis. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 53% for Aris to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Aris to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Aris's ratings add 3 points and Nea Salamis's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Aris's ratings49%+3
  5. Nea Salamis's ratings53%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ArisNea Salamis
9Matches9
4W 3D 2LRecord2W 2D 5L
13 1.4 per gameGoals scored14 1.6 per game
13 1.4 per gameGoals conceded18 2.0 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9
1 of 9Failed to score2 of 9
1 of 1Penalties scored–
28 3.1 per gameYellow cards24 2.7 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

Aris at home · Nea Salamis away

5Played5
1W 3D 1LRecord0W 1D 4L
6–8Goals for – against7–12
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Aris 9, Nea Salamis 9.

Aris scored 241223
Nea Salamis conceded 244314

Aris score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Nea Salamis have let in 4 there.

Nea Salamis scored 023324
Aris conceded 201324

Nea Salamis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Aris have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Aris

  • at Pafos29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 22%
  • vs Omonia 29is Maiou3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 55%
  • at Omonia Aradippou7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 40%
  • at Apollon Limassol13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 22%
  • at Omonia Nicosia20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 13%

Nea Salamis

  • vs Omonia Nicosia30 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 18%
  • at Krasava Ypsonas3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 36%
  • vs Karmiotissa8 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 61%
  • vs Olympiakos13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 40%
  • at AEK Larnaca20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 12%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.