Regular Season - 10 · 22 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca 1. Division prediction

GSP Stadium, Nicosia

Our model says: Olympiakos 0–1 AEK Larnaca

The model makes it 27% Olympiakos, 29% draw, 44% AEK Larnaca — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Olympiakos 1.04, AEK Larnaca 1.48.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

One-sided: AEK Larnaca are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Olympiakos's rating is built from 42 Cypriot First Division matches and AEK Larnaca's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Olympiakos are 9th on 9 points from 9 games; AEK Larnaca are top on 20 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
  • Olympiakos have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Apollon Limassol.
  • AEK Larnaca are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Karmiotissa.
  • Last 6 meetings: AEK Larnaca 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended AEK Larnaca 1–1 Olympiakos.

More Cypriot First Division predictions

All Cypriot First Division predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca

50%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Olympiakos win Draw AEK Larnaca win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–29%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 1–08%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Olympiakos first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

AEK Larnaca at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca

Olympiakos

1. Division

  • W1-0Apollon Limassol7 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Karmiotissa30 October 2026
  • D1-1Krasava Ypsonas24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Omonia Nicosia19 October 2026
  • L1-2Aris11 October 2026

AEK Larnaca

1. Division

  • W4-1Karmiotissa6 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Krasava Ypsonas31 October 2026
  • W2-0Omonia Nicosia26 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Aris18 October 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Olympiakos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Olympiakos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Olympiakos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AEK Larnaca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • AEK Larnaca scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Olympiakos91621213-19
1AEK Larnaca9621198+1120

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Olympiakos

Chance to finish in the top six · 13% today

Win 18%
Draw 13%
Defeat 10%

AEK Larnaca

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 28% today

Win 34%
Draw 24%
Defeat 20%

From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Olympiakos vs AEK Larnaca

  • 1 March 2026AEK Larnaca 1–1 Olympiakos1. Division
  • 22 November 2025Olympiakos 1–4 AEK Larnaca1. Division
  • 20 January 2023Olympiakos 0–2 AEK Larnaca1. Division
  • 17 October 2022AEK Larnaca 4–2 Olympiakos1. Division
  • 9 February 2022Olympiakos 0–0 AEK Larnaca1. Division
  • 27 September 2021AEK Larnaca 1–0 Olympiakos1. Division

Leading scorers: Olympiakos and AEK Larnaca

Olympiakos

GoalsAssists

  • Zannetos Savva22
  • Jean Felipe11

AEK Larnaca

GoalsAssists

  • Đ. Ivanović21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olympiakos a 0% chance of the title and AEK Larnaca 28%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Olympiakos AEK Larnaca
0.7 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.98
1.25 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.91
1.04 Model expected goals (this match) 1.48

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AEK Larnaca the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Olympiakos against 1.48 for AEK Larnaca. Olympiakos's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/0.91 for AEK Larnaca.

Olympiakos carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.89 for AEK Larnaca.

How the model reaches 44% for AEK Larnaca to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEK Larnaca to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Olympiakos's ratings add 8 points and AEK Larnaca's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. Olympiakos's ratings36%+8
  5. AEK Larnaca's ratings44%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

OlympiakosAEK Larnaca
9Matches9
1W 6D 2LRecord6W 2D 1L
12 1.3 per gameGoals scored19 2.1 per game
13 1.4 per gameGoals conceded8 0.9 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9
2 of 9Failed to score1 of 9
1 of 1Penalties scored0 of 1
18 2.0 per gameYellow cards21 2.3 per game
3-4-3 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 5×

Olympiakos at home · AEK Larnaca away

5Played4
1W 3D 1LRecord2W 2D 0L
9–9Goals for – against9–5
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Olympiakos 9, AEK Larnaca 9.

Olympiakos scored 025203
AEK Larnaca conceded 023112

Olympiakos score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); AEK Larnaca have let in 3 there.

AEK Larnaca scored 033327
Olympiakos conceded 115222

AEK Larnaca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Olympiakos have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Olympiakos

  • at AEL27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
  • vs Anorthosis2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 51%
  • at Apoel Nicosia5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 22%
  • at Nea Salamis13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%
  • vs Pafos21 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%

AEK Larnaca

  • vs Apollon Limassol27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 52%
  • vs AEL1 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 65%
  • at Anorthosis7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 52%
  • at Apoel Nicosia12 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 38%
  • vs Nea Salamis20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 69%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.