Omonia Aradippou
vs
Pafos
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Omonia Aradippou 0–1 Pafos
The model makes it 24% Omonia Aradippou, 30% draw, 46% Pafos — fair odds of 4.17, 3.33 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Omonia Aradippou 0.82, Pafos 1.35.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
One-sided: Pafos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Omonia Aradippou's rating is built from 42 Cypriot First Division matches and Pafos's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Omonia Aradippou are 13th on 6 points from 9 games; Pafos are 6th on 16 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
- Omonia Aradippou have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Nea Salamis.
- Pafos are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Omonia 29is Maiou.
- Last 4 meetings: Pafos 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 January 2026, ended Pafos 2–0 Omonia Aradippou.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Omonia Aradippou vs Pafos
Has the model earned this number?
Pafos at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Omonia Aradippou vs Pafos
Omonia Aradippou
1. Division
- L2-3away to Nea Salamis6 November 2026
- L1-2Apoel Nicosia1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Anorthosis24 October 2026
- L0-2AEL18 October 2026
- L0-1away to AEK Larnaca12 October 2026
Pafos
1. Division
- W4-2Omonia 29is Maiou8 November 2026
- D2-2away to Apollon Limassol31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Nea Salamis26 October 2026
- D0-0Apoel Nicosia19 October 2026
- W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Aradippou did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Omonia Aradippou conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pafos went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Omonia Aradippou | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 6 | Pafos | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Omonia Aradippou
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 59% today
Pafos
Chance to finish in the top six · 87% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Omonia Aradippou vs Pafos
- 12 January 2026Pafos 2–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
- 21 September 2025Omonia Aradippou 0–2 Pafos1. Division
- 8 February 2025Omonia Aradippou 0–2 Pafos1. Division
- 3 November 2024Pafos 4–0 Omonia Aradippou1. Division
Leading scorers: Omonia Aradippou and Pafos
Omonia Aradippou
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Pafos
GoalsAssists
- Lelê20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Omonia Aradippou a 0% chance of the title and Pafos 4.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Omonia Aradippou against 1.35 for Pafos. Omonia Aradippou's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.99 for Pafos.
How the model reaches 46% for Pafos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pafos to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Omonia Aradippou's ratings add 8 points and Pafos's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Omonia Aradippou's ratings36%+8
- Pafos's ratings46%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Omonia Aradippou at home · Pafos away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Omonia Aradippou 9, Pafos 9.
Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Omonia Aradippou have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Omonia Aradippou
- at Omonia 29is Maiou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 24%
- at Apollon Limassol2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 14%
- vs Aris7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- vs Omonia Nicosia15 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 15%
- at Krasava Ypsonas21 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 29%
Pafos
- vs FC Midtjylland26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
- vs Aris29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 52%
- at Omonia Nicosia3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 18%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 66%
- at Mjallby AIF10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.