Karmiotissa
vs
AEL
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Karmiotissa 0–1 AEL
The model makes it 29% Karmiotissa, 28% draw, 43% AEL — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Karmiotissa 1.13, AEL 1.52.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to AEL: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Karmiotissa's rating is built from 9 Cypriot First Division matches and AEL's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Karmiotissa are 12th on 6 points from 9 games; AEL are 3rd on 18 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
- Karmiotissa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to AEK Larnaca.
- AEL have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Krasava Ypsonas.
- Last 6 meetings: AEL 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 May 2025, ended AEL 1–0 Karmiotissa.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Karmiotissa vs AEL
Has the model earned this number?
AEL at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Karmiotissa vs AEL
Karmiotissa
1. Division
- L1-4away to AEK Larnaca6 November 2026
- W1-0Olympiakos30 October 2026
- L0-5Apollon Limassol25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Krasava Ypsonas17 October 2026
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia9 October 2026
AEL
1. Division
- W3-1Krasava Ypsonas7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Omonia Nicosia31 October 2026
- L1-3Aris25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Omonia Aradippou18 October 2026
- W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026
What these results say
- Karmiotissa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karmiotissa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Karmiotissa had three goals or more.
- AEL scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEL conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 6 |
| 3 | AEL | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Karmiotissa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 82% today
AEL
Chance to finish in the top six · 46% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Karmiotissa vs AEL
- 11 May 2025AEL 1–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 7 March 2025Karmiotissa 2–1 AEL1. Division
- 8 December 2024AEL 4–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 10 May 2024AEL 4–3 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 3 April 2024Karmiotissa 0–0 AEL1. Division
- 6 February 2024Karmiotissa 1–3 AEL1. Division
Leading scorers: Karmiotissa and AEL
Karmiotissa
GoalsAssists
- Patrick Luan11
AEL
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Karmiotissa a 0% chance of the title and AEL 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEL the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Karmiotissa against 1.52 for AEL. Karmiotissa's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.42 for AEL.
How the model reaches 43% for AEL to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEL to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Karmiotissa's ratings add 7 points and AEL's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Karmiotissa's ratings35%+7
- AEL's ratings43%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Karmiotissa at home · AEL away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Karmiotissa 9, AEL 9.
AEL score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Karmiotissa have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Karmiotissa
- at Anorthosis28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 20%
- vs Apoel Nicosia2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 20%
- at Nea Salamis8 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 17%
- at Pafos14 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 9%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou19 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 31%
AEL
- vs Olympiakos27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 40%
- at AEK Larnaca1 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 14%
- vs Apollon Limassol6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- at Anorthosis13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- vs Apoel Nicosia20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.