Regular Season - 15 · 23 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria Segunda División prediction

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

Our model says: AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Almeria

The model makes it 19% AD Ceuta FC, 23% draw, 58% Almeria — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).

Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.03, Almeria 2.13.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Almeria are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 9 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. AD Ceuta FC's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Almeria's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,076 matches.

Key facts

AD Ceuta FC are bottom on 5 points from 13 games; Almeria are top on 29 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
AD Ceuta FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Cordoba.
Almeria are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Girona.
Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Almeria 4–2 AD Ceuta FC.

More Segunda División predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria

57%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

AD Ceuta FC win Draw Almeria win

1–210%
1–110%
0–210%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
2–25%

Scores read AD Ceuta FC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Almeria at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria

AD Ceuta FC

Segunda División

L0-3away to Cordoba7 November 2026
L0-2Sporting Gijon1 November 2026
L1-3away to Cadiz25 October 2026
L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026

Almeria

Segunda División

W1-0away to Girona8 November 2026
D1-1away to Eibar31 October 2026
D2-2Oviedo24 October 2026
W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
W3-0Leganes11 October 2026

What these results say

AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for AD Ceuta FC had three goals or more.
Almeria went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Almeria scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	10	30	-20	5
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	24	10	+14	29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

AD Ceuta FC

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 93% today

Win 90%

Draw 92%

Defeat 94%

Almeria

Chance to finish in the top two · 55% today

Win 58%

Draw 50%

Defeat 48%

From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria

1 February 2026Almeria 4–2 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
26 November 2025AD Ceuta FC 3–2 AlmeriaSegunda División

Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Almeria

AD Ceuta FC

GoalsAssists

Jordi Escobar41
Carlos Hernández40

Almeria

GoalsAssists

Miguel de la Fuente81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AD Ceuta FC a 0% chance of the title and Almeria 29.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

AD Ceuta FC Almeria

0.55 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.94

1.89 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.21

1.03 Model expected goals (this match) 2.13

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Almeria the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC against 2.13 for Almeria. AD Ceuta FC's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.21 for Almeria.

AD Ceuta FC carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.73 for Almeria.

How the model reaches 58% for Almeria to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almeria to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, AD Ceuta FC's ratings add 13 points and Almeria's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 58%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage30%−6
AD Ceuta FC's ratings43%+13
Almeria's ratings58%+15

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

AD Ceuta FCModelAlmeria

Over 1.5 goals

100%

10 of 10 games

83%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

61%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

39%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

57%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

AD Ceuta FCAlmeria

13Matches13

1W 2D 10LRecord9W 2D 2L

10 0.8 per gameGoals scored24 1.8 per game

30 2.3 per gameGoals conceded10 0.8 per game

0 of 13Clean sheets6 of 13

5 of 13Failed to score2 of 13

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 2

36 2.8 per gameYellow cards27 2.1 per game

2Red cards1

4-3-3 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

AD Ceuta FC at home · Almeria away

7Played7

1W 1D 5LRecord4W 1D 2L

6–12Goals for – against9–5

0 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

AD Ceuta FCAlmeria

AD Ceuta FC are 22nd after 13 Segunda División matches (between 19th and 22nd so far); Almeria are 1st after 13 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: AD Ceuta FC 13, Almeria 13.

AD Ceuta FC scored 110316

Almeria conceded 012204

AD Ceuta FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Almeria have let in 4 there.

Almeria scored 356434

AD Ceuta FC conceded 172665

Almeria score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); AD Ceuta FC have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

AD Ceuta FC

at Granada CF29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 16%
vs Albacete6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
at Leganes13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
vs Eibar20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 22%

Almeria

vs Sporting Gijon29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 55%
at Castellón6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
vs Albacete13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 61%
vs Valladolid20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 59%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.