Brentford
vs
Everton
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Brentford 1–0 Everton
The model makes it 45% Brentford, 27% draw, 28% Everton — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Brentford 1.57, Everton 1.11.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Brentford's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Everton's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Brentford are 8th on 14 points from 10 games; Everton are 6th on 16 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Brentford have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Brighton.
- Everton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Coventry.
- Last 6 meetings: Everton 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Brentford 2–2 Everton.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brentford vs Everton
Has the model earned this number?
Brentford at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brentford vs Everton
Brentford
Premier League
- L0-2away to Brighton8 November 2026
- W2-0Nottingham Forest31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hull City25 October 2026
- L1-2Liverpool17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026
Everton
Premier League
- W3-1Coventry6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Newcastle2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Arsenal24 October 2026
- L0-2Chelsea17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026
What these results say
- Brentford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brentford scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brentford conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Brentford
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
Everton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Everton
- 11 April 2026Brentford 2–2 EvertonPremier League
- 4 January 2026Everton 2–4 BrentfordPremier League
- 26 February 2025Brentford 1–1 EvertonPremier League
- 23 November 2024Everton 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 27 April 2024Everton 1–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 23 September 2023Brentford 1–3 EvertonPremier League
Leading scorers: Brentford and Everton
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry61
- K. Dewsbury-Hall31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Everton (sixth, with Brentford eighth), while our numbers lean to Brentford. Brentford rate 1.13 in attack and 0.87 in defence, Everton 0.93 and 0.87 (lower is better in defence), so Brentford have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brentford a 0.3% chance of the title and Everton 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brentford the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Brentford against 1.11 for Everton. Brentford's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.87 for Everton.
How the model reaches 45% for Brentford to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Brentford to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Brentford's ratings add 3 points and Everton's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Brentford's ratings43%+3
- Everton's ratings45%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Brentford at home · Everton away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BrentfordEverton
Brentford are 8th after 10 Premier League matches (between 2nd and 7th so far); Everton are 6th after 10 (between 2nd and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Brentford 10, Everton 10.
Everton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Brentford have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Brentford
- at Manchester United28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Arsenal2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs Manchester City5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Fulham12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Newcastle19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 50%
Everton
- vs Liverpool29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Aston Villa2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Fulham6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Brighton13 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- at Nottingham Forest20 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.