Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Esbjerg vs AB Copenhagen 1. Division prediction

Blue Water Arena, Esbjerg

Our model says: Esbjerg 1–2 AB Copenhagen

The model makes it 35% Esbjerg, 28% draw, 37% AB Copenhagen — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Esbjerg 1.35, AB Copenhagen 1.41.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Esbjerg and AB Copenhagen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Esbjerg's rating is built from 46 1. Division (Denmark) matches and AB Copenhagen's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Esbjerg are 10th on 14 points from 14 games; AB Copenhagen are 4th on 21 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
  • Esbjerg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Hobro.
  • AB Copenhagen have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Vendsyssel FF.
  • Last 6 meetings: Esbjerg 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended AB Copenhagen 3–0 Esbjerg.

More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions

All 1. Division (Denmark) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Esbjerg vs AB Copenhagen

57%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Esbjerg win Draw AB Copenhagen win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–28%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read Esbjerg first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

AB Copenhagen at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Esbjerg vs AB Copenhagen

Esbjerg

1. Division

  • W1-0away to Hobro7 November 2026
  • D1-1Hvidovre31 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Fredericia24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Aarhus Fremad16 October 2026
  • D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026

AB Copenhagen

1. Division

  • W3-0Vendsyssel FF6 November 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Fredericia31 October 2026
  • W1-0Kolding IF24 October 2026
  • W3-2away to HB Koge16 October 2026
  • W2-0Aarhus Fremad9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Esbjerg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Esbjerg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AB Copenhagen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • AB Copenhagen won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Esbjerg143561724-714
4AB Copenhagen146352115+621

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Esbjerg

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 39% today

Win 25%
Draw 41%
Defeat 50%

AB Copenhagen

Chance to finish in the top six · 96% today

Win 99%
Draw 96%
Defeat 93%

From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Esbjerg vs AB Copenhagen

  • 19 September 2026AB Copenhagen 3–0 Esbjerg1. Division
  • 31 May 2024Esbjerg 6–0 AB Copenhagen2. Division
  • 14 April 2024AB Copenhagen 2–1 Esbjerg2. Division
  • 10 March 2024Esbjerg 2–1 AB Copenhagen2. Division
  • 2 September 2023AB Copenhagen 0–3 Esbjerg2. Division
  • 27 May 2023AB Copenhagen 1–1 Esbjerg2. Division

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esbjerg a 0% chance of the title and AB Copenhagen 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Esbjerg v AB Copenhagen has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is AB Copenhagen's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Esbjerg win35%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. AB Copenhagen win37%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Esbjerg AB Copenhagen
0.51 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58
2.02 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.63
1.35 Model expected goals (this match) 1.41

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AB Copenhagen the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Esbjerg against 1.41 for AB Copenhagen. Esbjerg's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.63 for AB Copenhagen.

Esbjerg carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.33 for AB Copenhagen.

How the model reaches 37% for AB Copenhagen to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AB Copenhagen to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Esbjerg's ratings add 4 points and AB Copenhagen's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Esbjerg's ratings33%+4
  4. AB Copenhagen's ratings37%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

EsbjergAB Copenhagen
14Matches14
3W 5D 6LRecord6W 3D 5L
17 1.2 per gameGoals scored21 1.5 per game
24 1.7 per gameGoals conceded15 1.1 per game
2 of 14Clean sheets5 of 14
4 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
–Penalties scored0 of 1
17 1.2 per gameYellow cards23 1.6 per game
1Red cards2
4-4-2 1×Usual shape4-2-3-1 1×

Esbjerg at home · AB Copenhagen away

7Played7
1W 4D 2LRecord2W 1D 4L
10–12Goals for – against10–11
0 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Esbjerg 14, AB Copenhagen 14.

Esbjerg scored 333432
AB Copenhagen conceded 520234

Esbjerg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); AB Copenhagen have let in 2 there.

AB Copenhagen scored 362225
Esbjerg conceded 140558

AB Copenhagen score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Esbjerg have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Esbjerg

  • at Aalborg26 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
  • at Kolding IF4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 30%
  • vs Aarhus Fremad20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 39%
  • at Vendsyssel FF27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 35%
  • vs Vejle6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 33%

AB Copenhagen

  • vs Vejle27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 42%
  • at Aarhus Fremad4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 32%
  • at Aalborg20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 39%
  • vs HB Koge27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 56%
  • vs Hillerød6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 54%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.