Kolding IF
vs
Aalborg
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Kolding IF 1–0 Aalborg
The model makes it 44% Kolding IF, 28% draw, 28% Aalborg — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kolding IF 1.50, Aalborg 1.11.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Kolding IF's rating is built from 46 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Aalborg's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Kolding IF are 9th on 15 points from 14 games; Aalborg are 6th on 16 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
- Kolding IF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Hillerød.
- Aalborg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to HB Koge.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Aalborg 1–1 Kolding IF.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kolding IF vs Aalborg
Has the model earned this number?
Kolding IF at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kolding IF vs Aalborg
Kolding IF
1. Division
- L1-3away to Hillerød7 November 2026
- W3-2HB Koge31 October 2026
- L0-1away to AB Copenhagen24 October 2026
- W2-1Vendsyssel FF16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hobro10 October 2026
Aalborg
1. Division
- D1-1away to HB Koge6 November 2026
- D1-1Hobro30 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hillerød24 October 2026
- L0-1Vejle17 October 2026
- D3-3away to Esbjerg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Kolding IF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kolding IF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Kolding IF.
- Aalborg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aalborg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kolding IF | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 6 | Aalborg | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kolding IF
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Aalborg
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kolding IF vs Aalborg
- 9 August 2026Aalborg 1–1 Kolding IF1. Division
- 22 November 2025Aalborg 0–3 Kolding IF1. Division
- 19 July 2025Kolding IF 1–0 Aalborg1. Division
- 24 May 2024Kolding IF 2–3 Aalborg1. Division
- 21 April 2024Aalborg 3–3 Kolding IF1. Division
- 28 October 2023Kolding IF 0–1 Aalborg1. Division
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aalborg (sixth, with Kolding IF ninth), while our numbers lean to Kolding IF. Kolding IF rate 0.46 in attack and 1.92 in defence, Aalborg 0.48 and 2.01 (lower is better in defence), so Kolding IF have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kolding IF the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Kolding IF against 1.11 for Aalborg. Kolding IF's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.01 for Aalborg.
How the model reaches 44% for Kolding IF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kolding IF to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Kolding IF's ratings change nothing and Aalborg's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Kolding IF's ratings43%±0
- Aalborg's ratings44%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kolding IF at home · Aalborg away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Kolding IF 14, Aalborg 14.
Kolding IF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Aalborg have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kolding IF
- at Hvidovre27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 18%
- vs Esbjerg4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 42%
- at FC Fredericia20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 17%
- vs Hobro27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Vendsyssel FF6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 33%
Aalborg
- vs Esbjerg26 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 43%
- at Vendsyssel FF5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- vs AB Copenhagen20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- at Vejle27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 19%
- vs Aarhus Fremad6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.