Aarhus Fremad
vs
Hobro
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Aarhus Fremad 1–0 Hobro
The model makes it 50% Aarhus Fremad, 28% draw, 22% Hobro — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Aarhus Fremad 1.50, Hobro 0.81.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Aarhus Fremad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Aarhus Fremad's rating is built from 46 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Hobro's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Aarhus Fremad are 5th on 18 points from 14 games; Hobro are 7th on 16 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
- Aarhus Fremad have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Hvidovre.
- Hobro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Esbjerg.
- Last 6 meetings: Hobro 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Hobro 1–2 Aarhus Fremad.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro
Has the model earned this number?
Aarhus Fremad at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro
Aarhus Fremad
1. Division
- L0-3away to Hvidovre9 November 2026
- W2-0Hillerød1 November 2026
- D0-0away to Vejle24 October 2026
- D0-0Esbjerg16 October 2026
- L0-2away to AB Copenhagen9 October 2026
Hobro
1. Division
- L0-1Esbjerg7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Aalborg30 October 2026
- D2-2Vendsyssel FF23 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Fredericia17 October 2026
- D1-1Kolding IF10 October 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus Fremad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus Fremad failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aarhus Fremad had two goals or fewer.
- Hobro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hobro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Hobro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aarhus Fremad
Chance to finish in the top six · 71% today
Hobro
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro
- 26 July 2026Hobro 1–2 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
- 14 May 2026Hobro 0–3 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
- 26 April 2026Aarhus Fremad 0–1 Hobro1. Division
- 20 February 2026Hobro 0–0 Aarhus FremadFriendlies Clubs
- 7 November 2025Hobro 2–0 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
- 24 September 2025Aarhus Fremad 1–2 HobroDBU Pokalen
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus Fremad the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Aarhus Fremad against 0.81 for Hobro. Aarhus Fremad's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.15 for Hobro.
How the model reaches 50% for Aarhus Fremad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Aarhus Fremad to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Aarhus Fremad's ratings add 2 points and Hobro's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Aarhus Fremad's ratings44%+2
- Hobro's ratings50%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Aarhus Fremad at home · Hobro away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Aarhus Fremad 14, Hobro 14.
Aarhus Fremad score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Hobro have let in 2 there.
Hobro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Aarhus Fremad have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus Fremad
- at HB Koge28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- vs AB Copenhagen4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- at Esbjerg20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- vs FC Fredericia27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- at Aalborg6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 32%
Hobro
- vs FC Fredericia29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 25%
- at Vejle6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 16%
- vs Hillerød20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 39%
- at Kolding IF27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 26%
- at Hvidovre6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 16%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.