FC Fredericia
vs
Hillerød
1. Division prediction
Our model says: FC Fredericia 1–0 Hillerød
The model makes it 59% FC Fredericia, 25% draw, 16% Hillerød — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FC Fredericia 1.88, Hillerød 0.72.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,919 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Fredericia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. FC Fredericia's rating is built from 13 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Hillerød's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Fredericia are 3rd on 23 points from 13 games; Hillerød are 9th on 12 points from 13 games — 1. Division.
- FC Fredericia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to AB Copenhagen.
- Hillerød have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Aarhus Fremad.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Fredericia 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Fredericia vs Hillerød
Has the model earned this number?
FC Fredericia at 59%: of 1,458 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.2% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Fredericia vs Hillerød
FC Fredericia
1. Division
- W3-1AB Copenhagen31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Esbjerg24 October 2026
- W3-0Hobro17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Hillerød10 October 2026
- D2-2Vejle20 September 2026
Hillerød
1. Division
- L0-2away to Aarhus Fremad1 November 2026
- W2-1Aalborg24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hvidovre18 October 2026
- L0-2FC Fredericia10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kolding IF18 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Fredericia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Fredericia had three goals or more.
- Hillerød conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hillerød failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hillerød had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 23 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Fredericia vs Hillerød
- 10 October 2026Hillerød 0–2 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 7 March 2025FC Fredericia 0–2 Hillerød1. Division
- 23 September 2024Hillerød 0–3 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 20 October 2023Hillerød 1–1 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 11 August 2023FC Fredericia 3–2 Hillerød1. Division
- 26 May 2023FC Fredericia 4–0 Hillerød1. Division
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Fredericia a 22.5% chance of the title and Hillerød 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Fredericia the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC Fredericia against 0.72 for Hillerød. FC Fredericia's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.96 for Hillerød.
How the model reaches 59% for FC Fredericia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Fredericia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, FC Fredericia's ratings add 8 points and Hillerød's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- FC Fredericia's ratings50%+8
- Hillerød's ratings59%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Fredericia at home · Hillerød away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: FC Fredericia 13, Hillerød 13.
FC Fredericia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Hillerød have let in 2 there.
Hillerød score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); FC Fredericia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Fredericia
- at Hobro29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- vs Hvidovre6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- vs Kolding IF20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 57%
- at Aarhus Fremad27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 34%
Hillerød
- vs Vendsyssel FF28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- vs HB Koge5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 43%
- at Hobro20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs Hvidovre27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.