Regular Season - 10 · 22 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Apollon Limassol vs Omonia 29is Maiou 1. Division prediction

Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

Our model says: Apollon Limassol 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou

The model makes it 64% Apollon Limassol, 20% draw, 16% Omonia 29is Maiou — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Apollon Limassol 2.65, Omonia 29is Maiou 1.09.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Apollon Limassol: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Apollon Limassol's rating is built from 45 Cypriot First Division matches and Omonia 29is Maiou's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Apollon Limassol are 5th on 16 points from 9 games; Omonia 29is Maiou are 8th on 11 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
  • Apollon Limassol have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Olympiakos.
  • Omonia 29is Maiou have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Pafos.
  • Last 3 meetings: Apollon Limassol 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2025, ended Omonia 29is Maiou 2–1 Apollon Limassol.

More Cypriot First Division predictions

All Cypriot First Division predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Apollon Limassol vs Omonia 29is Maiou

62%
Both teams to score
72%
Over 2.5 goals
28%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Apollon Limassol win Draw Omonia 29is Maiou win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 2–08%
  3. 3–18%
  4. 3–07%
  5. 1–17%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 4–15%

Scores read Apollon Limassol first; the other scorelines share the remaining 49%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Apollon Limassol at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Apollon Limassol vs Omonia 29is Maiou

Apollon Limassol

1. Division

  • L0-1away to Olympiakos7 November 2026
  • D2-2Pafos31 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Karmiotissa25 October 2026
  • W4-2Nea Salamis17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026

Omonia 29is Maiou

1. Division

  • L2-4away to Pafos8 November 2026
  • W1-0Nea Salamis1 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Apoel Nicosia25 October 2026
  • W1-0Anorthosis18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to AEL11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Apollon Limassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Apollon Limassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Apollon Limassol had three goals or more.
  • Omonia 29is Maiou scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Apollon Limassol94412111+1016
8Omonia 29is Maiou93241517-211

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Apollon Limassol

Chance to finish in the top six · 90% today

Win 92%
Draw 88%
Defeat 84%

Omonia 29is Maiou

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today

Win 8%
Draw 14%
Defeat 18%

From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Apollon Limassol vs Omonia 29is Maiou

  • 25 January 2025Omonia 29is Maiou 2–1 Apollon Limassol1. Division
  • 20 October 2024Apollon Limassol 2–0 Omonia 29is Maiou1. Division
  • 13 October 2023Omonia 29is Maiou 0–4 Apollon LimassolFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Apollon Limassol and Omonia 29is Maiou

Apollon Limassol

GoalsAssists

  • Brandon Thomas41
  • A. Ožbolt40
  • Garry Rodrigues24

Omonia 29is Maiou

No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Apollon Limassol a 7% chance of the title and Omonia 29is Maiou 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Apollon Limassol v Omonia 29is Maiou has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 62% / 21% / 17% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 64% / 20% / 16%: the biggest move is Apollon Limassol's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Apollon Limassol win64%▲ +2
  2. Draw20%▼ −1
  3. Omonia 29is Maiou win16%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Apollon Limassol Omonia 29is Maiou
0.97 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.76
1.19 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.68
2.65 Model expected goals (this match) 1.09

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Apollon Limassol the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Apollon Limassol against 1.09 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Apollon Limassol's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.68 for Omonia 29is Maiou.

Apollon Limassol carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.46 for Omonia 29is Maiou.

How the model reaches 64% for Apollon Limassol to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Apollon Limassol to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Apollon Limassol's ratings add 9 points and Omonia 29is Maiou's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 64%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Apollon Limassol's ratings55%+9
  5. Omonia 29is Maiou's ratings64%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Apollon LimassolOmonia 29is Maiou
9Matches9
4W 4D 1LRecord3W 2D 4L
21 2.3 per gameGoals scored15 1.7 per game
11 1.2 per gameGoals conceded17 1.9 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets3 of 9
2 of 9Failed to score0 of 9
3 of 3Penalties scored–
23 2.6 per gameYellow cards28 3.1 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape3-4-3 6×

Apollon Limassol at home · Omonia 29is Maiou away

4Played5
2W 2D 0LRecord1W 1D 3L
11–7Goals for – against10–13
0 of 4Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Apollon Limassol 9, Omonia 29is Maiou 9.

Apollon Limassol scored 325235
Omonia 29is Maiou conceded 144314
Omonia 29is Maiou scored 122541
Apollon Limassol conceded 234021

Omonia 29is Maiou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Apollon Limassol have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Apollon Limassol

  • at AEK Larnaca27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 23%
  • vs Omonia Aradippou2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 64%
  • at AEL6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 42%
  • vs Aris13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 54%
  • at Anorthosis19 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 47%

Omonia 29is Maiou

  • vs Omonia Aradippou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
  • at Aris3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 22%
  • vs Omonia Nicosia7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 17%
  • vs Krasava Ypsonas12 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 53%
  • at Karmiotissa19 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.